Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T03:32:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7A 0x7a3d…62bd world 32 markets active 2h ago coverage 446d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$14 (-2%) realized −$13 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate48%15W / 16L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit66%portable
Net worth$38now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 51% −$2
other 27% $0
politics 11% $0
tech 6% $0
crypto 4% −$14
culture 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-11.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +0.1% -9.4% 50% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 11 +0.9% -8.8% 55% 0% -9.9%
≤90d 11 +0.9% -8.8% 55% 0% -9.9%
all 31 -2.6% -11.9% 48% 0% -11.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.9% 0% -11.5%
10% -20.3% 0% -20.0%
15% -28.0% 0% -27.7%
20% -35.1% 0% -34.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 34% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$2 · ×0.08 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.14 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

446d coverage
Net worth$38
Realized−$13
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses15 / 16
Open positions1
Markets (closed)31 / 32
History coverage446d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit66%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 31 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? No 64¢ 62¢ $38 $38 −$1 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 18 $39 $0 +0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 18 $42 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 04 $3 $0 +8%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 02 $38 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 02 $24 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 02 $5 $0 +7%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 01 $2 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 31 $38 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 30 $57 $0 -1%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 30 $37 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 28 $40 −$2 -6%
Will Trump deport 1,000,000-1,250,000 people? Dec 25 $12 $0 +0%
Will Jurassic World: Rebirth be the top grossing movie of 2025? Jun 26 $11 $0 +3%
Will OpenAI have the top AI model on May 31? Jun 01 $11 $0 +4%
Will Elon tweet 350 or more times May 23–30? May 31 $1 $0 +1%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2025 World Series? May 09 $10 $0 +0%
Will Ukraine win Eurovision 2025? May 09 $11 $0 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey be named in Epstein files? May 08 $13 $0 -0%
Will Ferrari be the 2025 Constructors Champion? May 07 $12 $0 -0%
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2025 World Series? May 07 $1 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $101000 and $103000 on May 9? May 07 $12 $0 -1%
Will Trump pardon Matt Gaetz in his first 100 days? May 06 $14 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum dip to $1200 in April? May 06 $14 −$14 -100%
Will Czechia win Eurovision 2025? Apr 08 $14 $0 +0%
Will federal spending decrease by $750b-1t between Q4 2024 and Q2 2025 Apr 07 $14 $0 +1%
Will Elena Lasconi win the Romanian presidential election? Apr 05 $30 $0 +0%
Will Brad Lander win the Democratic Primary for Mayor of New York City Apr 05 $14 $0 -0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decemb Apr 04 $27 $0 +0%
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2025? Apr 01 $27 $0 +0%
Will the Seattle Mariners win the 2025 World Series? Mar 31 $27 $0 +0%
Will Russia abandon Syrian naval base before April? Mar 31 $27 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 64¢ $38 1h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $39 8h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $39 9h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 9¢ $4 20h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 9¢ $0 21h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 9¢ $4 21h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $38 30h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $38 34h
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL Yes 4¢ $3 14d
Iran leadership change by June 30? BUY Yes 4¢ $3 16d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? SELL No 78¢ $38 16d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? BUY No 78¢ $38 16d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL Yes 31¢ $24 16d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY Yes 31¢ $4 16d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY Yes 31¢ $20 16d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 20¢ $6 17d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 19¢ $5 17d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 17d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 17d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 17d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $38 19d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $38 19d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 49¢ $6 19d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 49¢ $32 19d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 50¢ $38 19d
Iran leadership change by May 31? SELL No 99¢ $27 19d
Iran leadership change by May 31? SELL No 99¢ $11 19d
Iran leadership change by May 31? BUY No 99¢ $37 19d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 46¢ $0 20d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 46¢ $19 20d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $37.50 · official $37.50 (match) · 91 history records