Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T18:05:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

7A
0x7a41…2562
weather · 880 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$578 -1%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$420 · open −$162
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP weather specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$2,996
Realized−$420
Unrealized−$162
Win rate (resolved)92%
Wins / losses788 / 73
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions39
Markets (closed)861 / 880
History coverage34d
Avg bet$110
Trades / day73.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 39 History 861 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$139
7 days−$320
14 days−$333
30 days−$325
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 18°C on June 12? No 100¢ 100¢ $988 $988 +$0 (+0%)
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 19°C on June 13? No 100¢ 100¢ $486 $487 +$1 (+0%)
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C or higher on June 13? No 100¢ 100¢ $382 $383 +$0 (+0%)
Will the lowest temperature in London be 17°C on June 12? No 100¢ 100¢ $240 $240 +$0 (+0%)
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 66-67°F on June 12? No 100¢ 100¢ $151 $152 +$1 (+0%)
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on June 12? No 96¢ 93¢ $141 $136 −$5 (-4%)
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 21°C or higher on June 13? No 100¢ 100¢ $135 $135 +$0 (+0%)
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on June 12? Yes 91¢ 91¢ $91 $91 +$0 (+0%)
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on June 13? No 100¢ 100¢ $70 $70 +$0 (+0%)
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 16°C on June 12? No 99¢ 99¢ $69 $69 +$0 (+0%)
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 15°C on June 12? No 97¢ 100¢ $48 $50 +$1 (+3%)
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 21°C or below on June 13? Yes 9¢ 44¢ $9 $44 +$35 (+384%)
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 18°C on June 13? No 83¢ 92¢ $29 $32 +$3 (+12%)
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 22°C on June 13? Yes 9¢ 32¢ $9 $32 +$22 (+247%)
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 23°C on June 13? Yes 9¢ 22¢ $9 $22 +$13 (+142%)
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 74-75°F on June 12? No 99¢ 100¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+1%)
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on June 13? Yes 30¢ 30¢ $13 $13 −$0 (-1%)
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 19°C on June 13? Yes 49¢ 58¢ $10 $12 +$2 (+19%)
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 14°C on June 12? No 99¢ 100¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 24°C on June 13? Yes 9¢ 6¢ $9 $6 −$4 (-39%)
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on June 12? No 6¢ 9¢ $2 $4 +$1 (+50%)
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? No 85¢ 90¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+7%)
Will China blockade Taiwan by June 30? No 91¢ 99¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+9%)
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 25°C on June 13? Yes 9¢ 1¢ $9 $1 −$8 (-92%)
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 26°C on June 13? Yes 9¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-96%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 20°C on June 12? Jun 12 $10 $0 +4%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 19°C on June 12? Jun 12 $11 +$4 +38%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on June 12? Jun 12 $146 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 18°C on June 12? Jun 12 $37 +$1 +4%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 16°C on June 12? Jun 12 $99 +$1 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 17°C on June 12? Jun 12 $177 +$3 +2%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 23°C on June 12? Jun 12 $25 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on June 12? Jun 12 $14 +$2 +11%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 12? Jun 12 $79 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 29°C on June 12? Jun 12 $48 +$2 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 12? Jun 12 $66 +$2 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 12? Jun 12 $99 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 15°C on June 12? Jun 12 $90 +$1 +1%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 90-91°F on Ju Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be 63°F or below on June Jun 12 $5 $0 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on Jun Jun 12 $20 $0 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 64-65°F on Jun Jun 12 $3 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 23°C or below on June 11? Jun 12 $100 −$100 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 10°C on June 11? Jun 12 $1,713 +$2 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 8°C on June 11? Jun 11 $422 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 9°C on June 11? Jun 11 $367 +$1 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 12°C on June 11? Jun 11 $123 $0 +0%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $9 +$1 +16%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 12°C on June 11? Jun 11 $367 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 33°C or below on June 11? Jun 11 $47 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 40°C on June 11? Jun 11 $99 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 41°C on June 11? Jun 11 $130 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 39°C on June 11? Jun 11 $146 +$4 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 38°C on June 11? Jun 11 $34 +$2 +6%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on June 12? Jun 11 $2 −$2 -98%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 18°C on June 11? Jun 11 $152 +$5 +3%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 17°C on June 11? Jun 11 $106 +$2 +2%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 16°C on June 11? Jun 11 $88 +$2 +2%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 15°C on June 11? Jun 11 $31 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C on June 11? Jun 11 $192 +$1 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 14°C on June 11? Jun 11 $17 +$2 +11%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 15°C on June 11? Jun 11 $73 +$12 +17%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 17°C on June 11? Jun 11 $84 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 19°C on June 10? Jun 11 $7 −$7 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 32°C or higher on June 10? Jun 11 $100 −$100 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 19°C on June 10? Jun 11 $7 +$3 +43%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 10°C on June 10? Jun 11 $123 +$2 +2%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 11°C on June 10? Jun 11 $50 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 9°C on June 10? Jun 11 $79 +$1 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in London be 13°C on June 10? Jun 11 $644 +$1 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 22°C on June 10? Jun 10 $10 $0 +4%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 10°C on June 10? Jun 10 $258 +$2 +1%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 11°C on June 10? Jun 10 $191 +$16 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 20°C on June 10? Jun 10 $17 +$1 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
weather 100% −$505
other 0% −$72
sports 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on Jun BUY No 6¢ $2 2m
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on Jun BUY No 6¢ $1 2m
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 18°C on June 13? BUY No 96¢ $10 39m
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 74-75°F on Jun BUY Yes 95¢ $10 51m
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 18°C on June 13? BUY No 79¢ $4 1h
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on June 13? BUY Yes 32¢ $8 1h
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 18°C on June 13? BUY No 77¢ $8 1h
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 18°C on June 13? BUY No 77¢ $8 1h
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on June 13? BUY Yes 26¢ $5 1h
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on June 13? BUY Yes 28¢ $5 1h
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on June 13? BUY No 87¢ $9 2h
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C or higher on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $101 2h
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 19°C on June 13? BUY Yes 49¢ $5 2h
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 19°C on June 13? BUY Yes 49¢ $5 2h
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on June 13? BUY No 88¢ $6 2h
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 21°C or higher on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $30 2h
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C or higher on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $282 2h
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 19°C on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $1 2h
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 19°C on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $189 2h
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $70 2h
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 21°C or higher on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $105 2h
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 19°C on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $173 2h
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 19°C on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $27 2h
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 19°C on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $96 2h
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 16°C on June 12? BUY No 99¢ $10 2h
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 16°C on June 12? BUY No 99¢ $10 2h
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 16°C on June 12? BUY No 99¢ $10 2h
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 16°C on June 12? BUY No 99¢ $10 2h
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 16°C on June 12? BUY No 99¢ $10 2h
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 16°C on June 12? BUY No 99¢ $10 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-7.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 220 +0.2% -9.3% 91% 11% -10.5%
≤30d 788 +2.4% -7.3% 92% 7% -10.0%
≤90d 861 +2.7% -7.1% 92% 8% -10.1%
all 861 +2.7% -7.1% 92% 8% -10.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover73.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -7.1% 8% -10.1%
10% ← realistic here -16.0% 4% -18.7%
15% -24.1% 3% -26.6%
20% -31.5% 3% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,995.93 · official $2,995.93 (match) · 3500 history records