Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T13:36:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7A 0x7a43…f98f world 29 markets active 3d ago coverage 444d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$3 (-0%) realized −$3 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate41%12W / 17L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$25per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit66%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$2
14 days−$2
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 52% −$1
other 26% $0
crypto 8% $0
politics 7% −$1
economics 4% $0
sports 4% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-15.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -2.1% -11.4% 57% 0% -10.0%
≤30d 9 -1.7% -11.1% 44% 0% -10.0%
≤90d 9 -1.7% -11.1% 44% 0% -10.0%
all 29 -7.0% -15.8% 41% 3% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.8% 3% -9.8%
10% -23.9% 0% -18.5%
15% -31.2% 0% -26.3%
20% -38.0% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 43% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
92% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late -7% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.3 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.45 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

444d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses12 / 17
Open positions0
Markets (closed)29 / 29
History coverage444d
Avg bet$25
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit66%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 29 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 16 $76 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 15 $40 $0 +1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 13 $10 −$1 -14%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 13 $36 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $75 −$1 -1%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $22 −$1 -3%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 12 $35 $0 +1%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 10 $43 $0 +0%
Iran Nuke before 2027? Jun 08 $32 $0 -1%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Dec Dec 17 $1 $0 +2%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after June 2025 meeting? Jun 19 $1 $0 +3%
Will Călin Georgescu win the Romanian presidential election? May 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Jayson Tatum play in Game 5? May 16 $1 $0 +0%
Will Trump announce Kevin Hassett as next Fed Chair? Apr 28 $24 $0 +1%
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2025 National League Championship? Apr 28 $25 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Young Thug in his first 100 days? Apr 26 $25 $0 +0%
Will the Edmonton Oilers win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Apr 25 $25 $0 -0%
Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander win the 2024-25 NBA MVP? Apr 25 $25 $0 +0%
Will Friedrich Merz be the next Chancellor of Germany? Apr 24 $26 $0 +1%
2025 March hottest on record? Apr 11 $0 $0 -100%
Will the Golden State Warriors win the Western Conference? Apr 05 $1 $0 +21%
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2025 World Series? Apr 04 $26 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $120k in April? Apr 04 $2 $0 -15%
Will federal spending decrease by $750b-1t between Q4 2024 and Q2 2025 Apr 03 $26 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2025? Apr 03 $28 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Eric Adams in his first 100 days? Apr 01 $28 $0 +0%
Will Crystal Palace be relegated? Mar 31 $28 $0 +0%
March Madness: Will 0 teams seeded #1 make the Final 4? Mar 31 $28 $0 +1%
Will Solana dip to $110 in March? Mar 29 $28 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $38 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 95¢ $38 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $22 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $16 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $38 3d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $2 3d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 3d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 3d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $39 4d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $38 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 19¢ $8 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 22¢ $10 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $36 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $36 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 77¢ $9 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 77¢ $30 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 77¢ $39 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 15¢ $6 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 15¢ $15 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 15¢ $22 5d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 80¢ $35 6d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 79¢ $35 6d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 76¢ $43 8d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 76¢ $43 8d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 47¢ $7 9d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 46¢ $9 9d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 46¢ $17 9d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 46¢ $2 9d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 47¢ $35 9d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 47¢ $1 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 81 history records