Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T03:40:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
7A 0x7a47…3ee5 sports 84 markets active 2h ago coverage 247d
RISKYcopy with care
Total PnL +$386 (+18%) realized +$390 · open −$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +27% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +15% what you keep after slip
Net edge+15%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate44%33W / 42L
Drawdown26%max
Avg bet$26per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$13est.
Kalshi-fit54%portable
Net worth$16now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$281
7 days+$393
14 days+$448
30 days+$522
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 59% +$184
sports 36% +$322
crypto 5% +$40
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)+15.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 32 +15.7% +4.7% 50% 50% +33.3%
≤30d 66 +32.4% +19.8% 44% 44% +17.7%
≤90d 66 +32.4% +19.8% 44% 44% +17.7%
all 75 +27.4% +15.2% 44% 43% +15.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +15.2% 43% +15.6%
10% +4.2% 41% +4.5%
15% -5.9% 39% -5.6%
20% -15.1% 33% -14.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +30% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +27% · $-wt +28% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +39% → late +16% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$39 vs −$17 · ×2.23 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.76 per $1 lost it wins $1.76
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

247d coverage
Net worth$16
Realized+$390
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses33 / 42
Est. fees paid−$13
Open positions1
Markets (closed)75 / 84
History coverage247d
Avg bet$26
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown26%
Kalshi-fit54%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 75 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $20 $16 −$4 (-19%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 38 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will South Africa vs. Canada end in a draw? Jun 28 $61 −$5 -8%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $40 +$24 +59%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? AND Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? A Jun 28 $25 +$58 +234%
Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw? Jun 28 $20 +$59 +291%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $51 +$45 +90%
Will DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? Jun 27 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Panama vs. England end in a draw? Jun 27 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? AND Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $39 +$18 +45%
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 27 $31 +$48 +158%
Will Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? Jun 27 $30 +$70 +238%
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $35 +$22 +62%
Will Uruguay vs. Spain end in a draw? Jun 26 $30 −$29 -98%
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 26 $28 +$72 +262%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $51 −$50 -99%
Will Tunisia vs. Netherlands end in a draw? Jun 25 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $51 +$47 +93%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 24 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $20 −$20 -98%
Will South Africa vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 24 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? AND Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $20 +$15 +72%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $45 +$23 +50%
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 23 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? AND Will France win on 2026-06-22? AND Jun 23 $20 +$27 +130%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $46 +$54 +119%
Spread: France (-2.5) Jun 23 $10 +$8 +76%
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 22 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 22 $10 −$10 -98%
Will France vs. Iraq end in a draw? Jun 22 $5 −$5 -97%
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 21 $25 −$24 -98%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $64 +$20 +31%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $59 +$40 +69%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $91 +$67 +73%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $30 −$30 -98%
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 19 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 19 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $10 +$27 +262%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 18 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $26 −$25 -98%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $40 +$10 +24%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $51 +$68 +134%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $81 −$80 -99%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $27 −$26 -98%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $61 +$26 +43%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $13 −$13 -98%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $21 −$20 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will South Africa vs. Canada end in a draw? SELL Yes 26¢ $56 1h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 100¢ $64 1h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? AND Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? A SELL 81¢ $83 1h
Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $80 2h
Will South Africa vs. Canada end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $61 18h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 62¢ $40 18h
Will DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $5 18h
Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $20 18h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 49¢ $20 18h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 52¢ $51 18h
Will Panama vs. England end in a draw? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 18h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? AND Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? A BUY 24¢ $25 18h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? AND Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26? SELL 99¢ $57 22h
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $79 22h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? AND Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26? BUY 67¢ $39 41h
Will Egypt vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 38¢ $31 41h
Will Uruguay vs. Spain end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $30 41h
Will Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $30 41h
Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 61¢ $35 41h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 51¢ $51 2d
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $28 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? AND Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06- BUY 51¢ $20 2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? AND Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? AND BUY 27¢ $15 2d
Will Tunisia vs. Netherlands end in a draw? BUY Yes 9¢ $5 2d
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 3¢ $5 2d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 51¢ $51 3d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar end in a draw? BUY Yes 18¢ $10 3d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 30¢ $20 3d
Will South Africa vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $15 3d
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $5 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $16.11 · official $16.11 (match) · 151 history records