Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T20:25:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7A 0x7a49…ac2e other 8 markets active 3d ago coverage 2d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$102 (-13%) realized −$102 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate88%7W / 1L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$96per market
Trades / day6.5pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit38%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 55% −$127
sports 45% +$23
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-16.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -7.2% -16.0% 88% 25% -21.7%
≤30d 8 -7.2% -16.0% 88% 25% -21.7%
≤90d 8 -7.2% -16.0% 88% 25% -21.7%
all 8 -7.2% -16.0% 88% 25% -21.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.0% 25% -21.7%
10% -24.1% 0% -29.2%
15% -31.4% 0% -36.0%
20% -38.1% 0% -42.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 44% · top 2 72% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -14% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
71% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$144 · ×0.04 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.28 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$102
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)88%
Wins / losses7 / 1
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)8 / 8
History coverage2d
Avg bet$96
Trades / day6.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit38%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 8 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 2 Colombia? Jun 18 $144 −$144 -100%
Exact Score: Ghana 1 - 0 Panama? Jun 18 $140 +$4 +3%
England vs. Croatia: Draw at halftime? Jun 17 $122 +$18 +14%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 17 $119 +$3 +3%
Exact Score: Austria 3 - 1 Jordan? Jun 17 $31 +$2 +6%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 17 $106 +$11 +11%
Saudi Arabia leading at halftime? Jun 15 $4 $0 +4%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $104 +$2 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 2 Colombia? BUY Yes 94¢ $144 2d
Exact Score: Ghana 1 - 0 Panama? SELL Yes 100¢ $144 2d
Exact Score: Ghana 1 - 0 Panama? BUY Yes 97¢ $140 2d
England vs. Croatia: Draw at halftime? SELL Yes 100¢ $140 2d
England vs. Croatia: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 87¢ $122 2d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score in First Half SELL Yes 100¢ $122 3d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY Yes 97¢ $119 3d
Exact Score: Austria 3 - 1 Jordan? SELL Yes 100¢ $33 3d
Exact Score: Austria 3 - 1 Jordan? BUY Yes 94¢ $31 3d
Exact Score: Any Other Score? SELL Yes 100¢ $117 3d
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 90¢ $106 3d
Saudi Arabia leading at halftime? SELL Yes 89¢ $4 4d
Saudi Arabia leading at halftime? BUY Yes 85¢ $4 4d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $106 4d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 98¢ $104 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 15 history records