trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 9 | -99.9% | -99.9% | 0% | 0% | -99.8% |
| ≤30d | 9 | -99.9% | -99.9% | 0% | 0% | -99.8% |
| ≤90d | 9 | -99.9% | -99.9% | 0% | 0% | -99.8% |
| all | 20 | -72.3% | -74.9% | 15% | 10% | -78.1% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal | -74.9% | 10% | -78.1% |
| 10% ← realistic here | -77.3% | 10% | -80.2% |
| 15% | -79.5% | 10% | -82.1% |
| 20% | -81.5% | 10% | -83.9% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? | Yes | 1¢ | 0¢ | $2 | $0 | −$2 (-83%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will US GDP growth in Q2 2025 be between -1% and -2%? | Jun 29 | $39 | −$39 | -100% |
| Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by July 31? | Jun 29 | $34 | −$34 | -100% |
| Will monthly inflation increase by 0.0% or less in June? | Jun 29 | $17 | −$17 | -100% |
| Will annual inflation increase by 2.2% or less in June? | Jun 29 | $14 | −$14 | -100% |
| Will US GDP growth in Q2 2025 be less than 2%? | Jun 29 | $65 | −$65 | -100% |
| Will US GDP growth in Q2 2025 be between 1% and 0%? | Jun 29 | $0 | $0 | -100% |
| Will monthly inflation increase by 0.1% in July? | Jun 29 | $30 | −$30 | -100% |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after September 2025 meeting? | Jun 29 | $28 | −$28 | -100% |
| Will US GDP growth in Q2 2025 be between 0% and -1%? | Jun 29 | $93 | −$92 | -99% |
| Will Sweden win Eurovision 2026? | Mar 01 | $62 | −$62 | -100% |
| Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? | Feb 24 | $202 | +$9 | +5% |
| Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? | Jan 11 | $16 | +$10 | +62% |
| Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? | Dec 10 | $785 | −$402 | -51% |
| Will 7 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? | Dec 10 | $420 | −$1 | -0% |
| Will 8+ Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? | Dec 10 | $146 | −$1,600 | -1095% |
| Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? | Dec 10 | $283 | −$165 | -58% |
| Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? | Dec 09 | $465 | −$122 | -26% |
| Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? | Nov 30 | $52 | +$42 | +80% |
| Will the US loose jobs in September? | Nov 07 | $429 | −$485 | -113% |
| Fact check: Was Tyler Robinson a lone actor? | Oct 10 | $62 | −$62 | -100% |