Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T03:57:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7A 0x7a4c…4068 crypto 575 markets active 1h ago coverage 71d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 70d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL +$3,503 (+6%) realized +$3,503 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -35% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -50% what you keep after slip
Net edge-50%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate33%296W / 589L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$99per market
Trades / day47.1pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 71d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$1,065
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-41.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 349 -89.9% -90.9% 5% 5% -90.4%
≤30d 501 -60.8% -64.5% 19% 19% -62.4%
≤90d 885 -35.3% -41.4% 33% 32% -38.4%
all 885 -35.3% -41.4% 33% 32% -38.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover47.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -41.4% 32% -38.4%
10% ← realistic here -47.0% 30% -44.3%
15% -52.2% 29% -49.7%
20% -56.8% 28% -54.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 4% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -32% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -35% · $-wt -32% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -68% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$95 vs −$93 · ×1.02 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.51 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

71d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$3,503
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses296 / 589
Open positions0
Markets (closed)885 / 575
History coverage71d ⚠
Avg bet$99
Trades / day47.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 885 Trades
no open positions (500 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - January 27, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 18 $106 −$106 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 4, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 18 $73 −$73 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 4, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 18 $24 −$24 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 12, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 18 $100 −$100 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 19, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 18 $24 −$24 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 18 $45 −$45 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 13, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 18 $100 −$100 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 24, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 18 $43 −$43 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 26, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 18 $24 −$24 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 3, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 18 $24 −$24 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 26, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 18 $72 −$72 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 10, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 18 $49 −$49 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 12, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 18 $49 −$49 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 13, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 18 $100 −$100 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 18 $144 −$144 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 23, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 18 $52 −$51 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 21, 8AM ET Jun 18 $500 −$500 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 26, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 18 $409 −$409 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 19, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 18 $49 −$49 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 2, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 18 $23 −$23 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 18 $237 −$237 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 19, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 18 $24 −$24 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 25, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 18 $48 −$48 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 27, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 18 $50 −$50 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 4, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 18 $24 −$24 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 26, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 18 $24 −$24 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 11, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 18 $4 −$4 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 4, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 18 $24 −$24 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 25, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 18 $48 −$48 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 11, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 18 $141 −$141 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 25, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 18 $50 −$50 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 26, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 18 $345 −$345 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 18, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 18 $49 −$49 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 4, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 18 $49 −$46 -93%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 10, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 18 $28 −$28 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 23, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 18 $52 −$52 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 2, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 18 $49 −$49 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 18, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Jun 18 $271 −$271 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 19, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 18 $47 −$47 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 1, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 18 $49 −$49 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 10, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 18 $24 −$24 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 25, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 18 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 27, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 18 $288 −$288 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 2, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 18 $202 −$202 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 1, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 18 $70 −$70 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 18 $48 −$48 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 24, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 18 $14 −$14 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - December 20, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 18 $100 −$100 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - January 26, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 18 $110 −$110 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 10, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 18 $216 −$216 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $8 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $12 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET SELL Up 90¢ $268 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $144 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $12 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Up 48¢ $36 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $11 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $4 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET SELL Up 95¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET SELL Up 95¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET SELL Up 95¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET SELL Up 95¢ $23 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET SELL Up 95¢ $5 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3500 history records