Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T05:40:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

7A
0x7a51…1e9f
crypto · 17 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$233 -40%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$233 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$0
Realized−$233
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses6 / 11
Open positions0
Markets (closed)17 / 17
History coverage1d
Avg bet$34
Trades / day34.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%
Chart Positions 0 History 17 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$233
7 days−$233
14 days−$233
30 days−$233
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Down 40¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Up 48¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Down 50¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Up 37¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 14 $52 −$45 -87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 14 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 14 $26 −$26 -100%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $20 −$12 -61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 14 $26 +$2 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 14 $26 +$17 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 14 $26 +$27 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 14 $26 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 14 $26 −$24 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 14 $51 +$15 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 14 $51 +$13 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 14 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 14 $52 −$52 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 14 $26 +$22 +87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 14 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 14 $104 −$100 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 14 $10 −$10 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 97% −$221
other 3% −$12
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET SELL Down 6¢ $7 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $26 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Down 43¢ $26 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $26 9m
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 12¢ $8 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET SELL Down 66¢ $28 15m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $26 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET SELL Down 94¢ $43 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $26 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $53 25m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $26 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET SELL Down 53¢ $25 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $26 33m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Down 21¢ $26 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET SELL Down 3¢ $2 41m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $26 44m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $66 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $25 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $25 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $64 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Down 77¢ $25 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Down 77¢ $25 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $48 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $5 1h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 29¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET SELL Up 2¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $104 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-42.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 -36.4% -42.4% 35% 29% -45.9%
≤30d 17 -36.4% -42.4% 35% 29% -45.9%
≤90d 17 -36.4% -42.4% 35% 29% -45.9%
all 17 -36.4% -42.4% 35% 29% -45.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover34.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -42.4% 29% -45.9%
10% ← realistic here -47.9% 29% -51.0%
15% -53.0% 18% -55.8%
20% -57.6% 18% -60.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 36 history records