Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T22:16:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7A 0x7a5d…54db sports 326 markets active 0h ago coverage 2d ⚠
BOTnot copyable sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 1d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (1675 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$98,650 (+102%) realized +$99,569 · open −$919
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate43%175W / 228L
Whale WR52%big bets
Drawdown30%max
Avg bet$298per market
Trades / day1675.1pace
Fees−$653est.
Kalshi-fit66%portable
Net worth$3,683now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 64% +$9,351
sports 36% +$649
culture 0% +$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (1675 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-3.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 403 +6.7% -3.5% 43% 32% -3.7%
≤30d 403 +6.7% -3.5% 43% 32% -3.7%
≤90d 403 +6.7% -3.5% 43% 32% -3.7%
all 403 +6.7% -3.5% 43% 32% -3.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1675.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -3.5% 32% -3.7%
10% ← realistic here -12.7% 24% -13.0%
15% -21.1% 20% -21.4%
20% -28.9% 17% -29.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +9% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
27% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +7% · $-wt +9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 52% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early +23% → late -9% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
6.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$102 vs −$45 · ×2.27 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.74 per $1 lost it wins $1.74
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$3,683
Realized+$99,569
Unrealized−$919
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses175 / 228
Whale WR (big bets)52%
Est. fees paid−$653
Open positions35
Markets (closed)403 / 326
History coverage2d ⚠
Avg bet$298
Trades / day1675.1
Drawdown30%
Kalshi-fit66%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 35 History 403 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bangladesh win? No 54¢ 90¢ $625 $1,053 +$429 (+69%)
Exact Score: Germany 1 - 3 Paraguay? No 97¢ 99¢ $292 $298 +$6 (+2%)
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 2 Paraguay? No 95¢ 99¢ $286 $296 +$10 (+4%)
Will the match end in a draw? No 92¢ 98¢ $245 $262 +$16 (+7%)
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 1 Paraguay? No 81¢ 92¢ $197 $222 +$25 (+13%)
Will Zimbabwe win? Yes 74¢ 90¢ $148 $180 +$32 (+22%)
Will Zimbabwe win? No 24¢ 10¢ $415 $171 −$245 (-59%)
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 1 Paraguay? No 66¢ 68¢ $153 $158 +$5 (+3%)
Germany vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score Yes 76¢ 100¢ $83 $109 +$26 (+31%)
Exact Score: Germany 1 - 2 Paraguay? No 93¢ 94¢ $107 $109 +$2 (+2%)
Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 Over 56¢ 100¢ $56 $100 +$44 (+78%)
Exact Score: Germany 1 - 1 Paraguay? No 85¢ 54¢ $141 $88 −$53 (-37%)
Exact Score: Germany 1 - 1 Paraguay? Yes 31¢ 46¢ $52 $79 +$27 (+52%)
Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 4.5 Under 91¢ 97¢ $68 $72 +$5 (+7%)
Will Bangladesh win? Yes 22¢ 10¢ $132 $58 −$74 (-56%)
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 1 Paraguay? Yes 26¢ 32¢ $45 $56 +$11 (+24%)
Paraguay leading at halftime? Yes 94¢ 100¢ $46 $49 +$3 (+6%)
Germany vs. Paraguay: Draw at halftime? No 81¢ 100¢ $39 $48 +$9 (+23%)
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 2 Paraguay? No 92¢ 94¢ $45 $46 +$1 (+2%)
Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 Under 86¢ 86¢ $43 $43 −$0 (-1%)
Set Handicap: Nakashima (-2.5) vs Jones (+2.5) Jones 54¢ 50¢ $29 $27 −$2 (-8%)
Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Over 54¢ 54¢ $27 $27 −$0 (-1%)
Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Under 46¢ 46¢ $23 $23 +$0 (+1%)
Will Morocco reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 89¢ 92¢ $13 $14 +$0 (+3%)
Will Brazil reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? No 81¢ 81¢ $12 $12 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 168 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
UFC Fight Night: Javier Reyes vs. Kaan Ofli (Featherweight, Prelims) Jun 29 $33 −$33 -100%
Set Handicap: Osaka (-1.5) vs Mertens (+1.5) Jun 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Cassone vs. Quinn: Match O/U 23.5 Jun 29 $4 −$4 -100%
Ann Li vs. Ekaterina Alexandrova: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 29 $31 −$31 -100%
PortlandFire vs. Chicago Sky Jun 29 $29 −$49 -169%
Quinn vs. Kopriva: Match O/U 21.5 Jun 29 $7 −$7 -100%
Toronto Tempo vs. Connecticut Sun: O/U 165.5 Jun 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Set 1 Winner: Zheng vs Tauson Jun 29 $9 −$9 -100%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 214.5 Jun 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Set Handicap: Fokina (-1.5) vs Dimitrov (+1.5) Jun 29 $53 −$53 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Nazim Sadykhov vs. Matheus Camilo (Lightweight, Main Jun 29 $66 −$66 -100%
Jelena Ostapenko vs. Zeynep Sonmez: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 29 $0 $0 -100%
McNally vs. Marcinko: Match O/U 21.5 Jun 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Yulia Starodubtseva vs. Anastasia Zakharova: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 29 $52 −$52 -100%
Exact Score: Uruguay 2 - 0 Cabo Verde? Jun 29 $20 −$20 -100%
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Indiana Fever: O/U 175.5 Jun 29 $58 −$58 -100%
Miomir Kecmanovic vs. Fabian Marozsan: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 29 $6 −$6 -100%
Ostapenko vs. Udvardy: Match O/U 22.5 Jun 29 $0 $0 -100%
Exact Score: Egypt 0 - 1 IR Iran? Jun 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Phoenix Mercury vs. Toronto Tempo Jun 29 $14 −$17 -118%
Lys vs. Navarro: Match O/U 22.5 Jun 29 $0 $0 -100%
PortlandFire vs. Chicago Sky: O/U 170.5 Jun 29 $48 −$48 -100%
Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 216.5 Jun 29 $0 $0 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Theodor Berggren vs. Daniil Donchenko (Welterweight, Jun 29 $54 −$54 -100%
Tjen vs. McNally: Match O/U 21.5 Jun 29 $37 −$37 -100%
Quinn vs. Fokina: Match O/U 22.5 Jun 29 $86 −$86 -100%
PortlandFire vs. Chicago Sky Jun 29 $19 −$38 -198%
Exact Score: Morocco 0 - 0 Haiti? Jun 29 $3 −$3 -100%
Set Handicap: Quinn (-1.5) vs Cassone (+1.5) Jun 29 $33 −$54 -166%
Exact Score: Croatia 0 - 1 Ghana? Jun 29 $16 −$16 -100%
Set Handicap: Quinn (-1.5) vs Royer (+1.5) Jun 29 $2 −$2 -100%
PortlandFire vs. Chicago Sky: O/U 174.5 Jun 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Set Handicap: Darderi (-1.5) vs Hanfmann (+1.5) Jun 29 $68 −$68 -100%
Exact Score: Colombia 2 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 29 $0 $0 -100%
Exact Score: Ecuador 0 - 1 Germany? Jun 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Kimi Antonelli get pole position at the 2026 F1 Austrian Grand Pr Jun 29 $977 −$980 -100%
Exact Score: Panama 1 - 0 England? Jun 29 $0 $0 -100%
Tatjana Maria vs. Tereza Valentova: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 29 $14 −$14 -100%
Exact Score: Uruguay 1 - 0 Cabo Verde? Jun 29 $4 −$4 -100%
Set Handicap: Borges (-1.5) vs Darderi (+1.5) Jun 29 $15 −$15 -100%
Choinski vs. Bergs: Match O/U 22.5 Jun 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Spread: Atlanta Dream (-1.5) Jun 29 $2 −$2 -100%
Exact Score: Curaçao 1 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 29 $2 −$2 -100%
Spread: Atlanta Dream (-14.5) Jun 29 $60 −$62 -103%
Bergs vs. Samuel: Match O/U 22.5 Jun 29 $27 −$27 -100%
Exact Score: Türkiye 3 - 1 United States? Jun 29 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: Jordan 3 - 0 Algeria? Jun 29 $0 $0 -100%
Naomi Osaka vs. Magdalena Frech: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 29 $2 −$2 -100%
Set Handicap: Samuel (-1.5) vs Tirante (+1.5) Jun 29 $7 −$7 -100%
Birrell vs. Krejcikova: Match O/U 23.5 Jun 29 $0 $0 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 1 Paraguay? SELL No 70¢ $62 1m
Exact Score: Germany 1 - 2 Paraguay? BUY No 93¢ $13 1m
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 1 Paraguay? SELL No 68¢ $25 2m
Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 99¢ $18 2m
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 1 Paraguay? SELL No 67¢ $100 3m
Exact Score: Germany 1 - 1 Paraguay? SELL Yes 51¢ $44 3m
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 1 Paraguay? SELL No 68¢ $1 3m
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 1 Paraguay? SELL No 67¢ $18 4m
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 1 Paraguay? BUY No 61¢ $13 4m
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 1 Paraguay? BUY No 61¢ $30 4m
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 1 Paraguay? BUY No 61¢ $30 4m
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 1 Paraguay? BUY No 61¢ $17 4m
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 1 Paraguay? SELL No 95¢ $2 4m
Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 98¢ $8 5m
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 1 Paraguay? SELL No 94¢ $17 5m
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 1 Paraguay? BUY No 64¢ $96 5m
Exact Score: Germany 1 - 2 Paraguay? SELL No 95¢ $143 5m
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 1 Paraguay? SELL No 93¢ $26 5m
Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 98¢ $2 5m
Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 47¢ $23 6m
Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 SELL Under 85¢ $42 6m
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 1 Paraguay? SELL Yes 11¢ $17 6m
Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 19¢ $10 6m
Exact Score: Germany 1 - 1 Paraguay? SELL No 56¢ $84 6m
Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 56¢ $28 6m
Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 6¢ $3 6m
Exact Score: Germany 1 - 2 Paraguay? BUY No 87¢ $66 7m
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 1 Paraguay? SELL No 68¢ $102 8m
Exact Score: Germany 1 - 1 Paraguay? SELL No 59¢ $12 8m
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 1 Paraguay? SELL Yes 39¢ $6 8m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $3,682.58 · official $3,689.68 (match) · 3500 history records