Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T15:29:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7A 0x7a60…6c27 politics 192 markets active 2h ago coverage 167d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$14 (-0%) realized −$14 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate12%22W / 169L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$51per market
Trades / day3.7pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$35now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 30% −$6
sports 25% −$3
other 24% −$4
crypto 9% −$1
culture 3% +$1
economics 3% −$1
world 3% $0
finance 1% $0
tech 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 2 -0.4% -9.9% 0% 0% -9.9%
≤90d 75 -0.1% -9.7% 19% 0% -9.7%
all 191 -0.1% -9.6% 12% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.1% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 46% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.6 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.28 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

167d coverage
Net worth$35
Realized−$14
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)12%
Wins / losses22 / 169
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)191 / 192
History coverage167d
Avg bet$51
Trades / day3.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 191 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $95 by end of June? No 96¢ 96¢ $35 $35 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 08 $99 $0 -0%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 01 $134 $0 -0%
Will Ferrari be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 18 $34 $0 -1%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? Apr 27 $57 $0 -0%
Will Israel win Eurovision 2026? Apr 27 $71 $0 +0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 27 $111 $0 -0%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 25 $107 $0 -0%
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 24 $111 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 24 $33 $0 -1%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 22 $187 $0 -0%
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Apr 22 $29 $0 +0%
Will Italy win Eurovision 2026? Apr 22 $72 $0 -0%
Will Katie Porter win the California Governor Election in 2026? Apr 21 $64 −$1 -1%
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in April? Apr 21 $29 $0 +0%
Will the New York Mets win the 2026 World Series? Apr 21 $62 $0 -0%
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 20 $35 $0 -0%
Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 20 $111 −$1 -1%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in April? Apr 20 $112 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in April? Apr 20 $30 $0 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 19 $73 $0 -0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? Apr 19 $65 $0 +0%
Will the Minnesota Wild win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Apr 18 $110 $0 -0%
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Apr 18 $40 $0 -0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 18 $70 $0 -0%
Will François Hollande win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 17 $158 $0 -0%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 17 $94 $0 -0%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 17 $193 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 16 $30 $0 -0%
Will the Buffalo Sabres win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Apr 15 $31 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in April? Apr 15 $40 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $10,000 by December 31, 2026? Apr 15 $35 $0 -0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 15 $199 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? Apr 14 $27 $0 -0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 14 $118 $0 -0%
Will the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2 Apr 13 $39 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $15,000 by December 31, 2026? Apr 13 $87 $0 -0%
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 13 $38 $0 +0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $170 in April? Apr 13 $34 $0 -0%
Will Real Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 12 $30 $0 +0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 12 $37 $0 -0%
Will the Seattle Mariners win the 2026 World Series? Apr 12 $28 $0 -0%
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 11 $152 $0 +0%
Will Pope Leo XIV win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Apr 11 $36 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026? Apr 10 $155 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 10 $112 $0 -0%
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 09 $114 $0 -0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 09 $66 $0 +0%
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 08 $113 $0 -0%
Will Greece win Eurovision 2026? Apr 08 $145 −$1 -0%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 08 $70 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $95 by end of June? BUY No 96¢ $35 1h
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 90¢ $33 12d
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 91¢ $33 12d
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 96¢ $30 20d
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 97¢ $30 20d
Will Ferrari be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 94¢ $33 34d
Will Ferrari be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 95¢ $34 34d
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 97¢ $26 54d
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 98¢ $26 55d
Will Israel win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 94¢ $39 55d
Will Israel win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 94¢ $38 55d
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 95¢ $33 55d
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 96¢ $33 57d
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 96¢ $32 57d
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 96¢ $32 57d
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 97¢ $35 57d
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 96¢ $21 58d
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 96¢ $14 58d
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $31 58d
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $31 58d
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 97¢ $33 58d
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $33 59d
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 97¢ $39 59d
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 97¢ $39 60d
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? SELL No 96¢ $29 60d
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY No 95¢ $29 60d
Will Italy win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 97¢ $29 60d
Will Italy win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 97¢ $29 60d
Will Katie Porter win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 94¢ $27 60d
Will Katie Porter win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 94¢ $25 61d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $34.68 · official $34.68 (match) · 722 history records