Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T01:16:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
7A 0x7a61…23c6 other 12 markets active 2h ago coverage 4d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge
Total PnL +$187 (+23%) realized +$203 · open −$16
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +125% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +96% what you keep after slip
Net edge+96%after slip
Net WR86%break-even
Win rate86%6W / 1L
Drawdown14%max
Avg bet$67per market
Trades / day3.5pace
Kalshi-fit0%portable
Net worth$219now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 100% +$224
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +86%
net ROI/market (all)+103.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +125.0% +103.6% 86% 86% +44.7%
≤30d 7 +125.0% +103.6% 86% 86% +44.7%
≤90d 7 +125.0% +103.6% 86% 86% +44.7%
all 7 +125.0% +103.6% 86% 86% +44.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +103.6% 86% +44.7%
10% +84.1% 71% +30.8%
15% +66.3% 71% +18.2%
20% +50.0% 71% +6.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 38% · top 2 56% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +60% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +125% · $-wt +60% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$46 vs −$34 · ×1.34 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×8.05 per $1 lost it wins $8.05
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$219
Realized+$203
Unrealized−$16
Win rate (resolved)86%
Wins / losses6 / 1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)7 / 12
History coverage4d
Avg bet$67
Trades / day3.5
Drawdown14%
Kalshi-fit0%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 7 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Yes 85¢ 66¢ $185 $143 −$42 (-23%)
Will Tommy Fleetwood finish in the Top 20 at the 2026 U.S. Open? Yes 54¢ 82¢ $50 $77 +$27 (+53%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-1 Jun 20 $15 +$31 +200%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $161 +$19 +12%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $61 +$38 +62%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $10 +$50 +488%
Will Patrick Reed finish in the Top 20 at the 2026 U.S. Open? Jun 18 $35 −$34 -98%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $71 +$104 +146%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $48 +$33 +67%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $219.21 · official $281.39 · 18 history records