Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T11:51:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7A 0x7a64…601b world 41 markets active 1h ago coverage 489d
TRAPdo not copy world specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$56 (-4%) realized −$56 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate38%15W / 25L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$37per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit85%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 47% −$8
other 18% −$5
sports 16% −$45
crypto 7% $0
politics 7% +$1
weather 3% $0
finance 2% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-8.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -0.2% -9.7% 17% 0% -9.8%
≤30d 10 +0.1% -9.4% 30% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 23 +5.1% -4.9% 26% 4% -10.5%
all 40 +1.7% -8.0% 38% 5% -13.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.0% 5% -13.1%
10% -16.8% 5% -21.4%
15% -24.9% 5% -29.0%
20% -32.2% 2% -36.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 80% · top 2 86% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
87% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late +6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$6 · ×0.22 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.26 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

489d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$56
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses15 / 25
Open positions1
Markets (closed)40 / 41
History coverage489d
Avg bet$37
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit85%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 40 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Yes 46¢ 40¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-12%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 25 $64 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 23 $8 $0 +0%
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 20 $4 $0 +0%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 19 $38 $0 -1%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $13 $0 +0%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 18 $38 $0 +0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $2 $0 +2%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $38 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 27 $37 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia May 26 $32 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 26 $34 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 25 $50 −$1 -3%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 25 $36 $0 +1%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 25 $75 +$1 +1%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 24 $33 +$1 +3%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 24 $22 $0 -2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 23 $38 −$5 -14%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? May 23 $4 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 21 $38 $0 -0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 19 $43 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 19 $10 $0 -4%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 19 $40 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 18 $30 −$2 -5%
Will Frances Black win the Irish Presidential Election? Dec 10 $2 $0 +6%
Will Taylor Fritz win Wimbledon 2025? Dec 10 $2 $0 +2%
Will Bitcoin dip to $90k in May? Jun 02 $2 $0 +3%
Will Olaf Scholz be the next Chancellor of Germany? May 08 $2 −$1 -40%
Trump ends Ukraine war in first 90 days? Apr 25 $1 $0 +1%
Will Trump pardon himself in his first 100 days? Apr 03 $53 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be between 60-61°F on March 31? Apr 03 $53 $0 +1%
Will Israel win Eurovision 2025? Mar 31 $53 $0 +0%
Will MicroStrategy purchase Bitcoin March 25-31? Mar 31 $52 $0 +1%
Will Borussia Dortmund win the UEFA Champions League? Mar 30 $52 $0 +0%
Will MicroStrategy hold 550k+ BTC before April? Mar 27 $53 $0 +0%
Will Trump's approval rating be less than 46.0% on March 28? Mar 26 $50 +$1 +1%
Will Elon tweet 625-649 times March 21-28? Mar 23 $53 $0 -0%
Liverpool wins the Premier League? Mar 21 $53 $0 -0%
South Alabama vs. Southern Mississippi Mar 20 $38 +$15 +41%
Holy Cross vs. Colgate Mar 20 $98 −$61 -62%
Will Duke win the 2025 NCAA Tournament? Feb 26 $102 −$4 -4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $34 39m
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $34 1h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $5 43h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $25 43h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $30 47h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 10¢ $8 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $4 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $4 2d
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 7¢ $4 4d
Will 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 7¢ $4 5d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 51¢ $34 6d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 51¢ $21 6d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 51¢ $14 6d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 81¢ $29 6d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 81¢ $8 6d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 82¢ $38 6d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 34¢ $3 6d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 34¢ $10 6d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 34¢ $4 6d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 34¢ $9 6d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 84¢ $38 6d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 84¢ $38 7d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 5¢ $2 7d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 7d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 7d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $38 7d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $38 7d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? SELL No 98¢ $37 29d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? BUY No 98¢ $37 29d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 58¢ $23 29d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.82 · official $0.00 (match) · 125 history records