Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T05:53:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7A 0x7a6e…0adf crypto 749 markets active 1h ago coverage 126d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$191 (+2%) realized +$191 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate50%377W / 372L
Drawdown87%max
Avg bet$12per market
Trades / day6.3pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$15
7 days−$163
14 days−$163
30 days−$163
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$96
other 0% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-10.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 30 -25.6% -32.7% 40% 33% -39.3%
≤30d 30 -25.6% -32.7% 40% 33% -39.3%
≤90d 70 -24.2% -31.4% 41% 37% -33.1%
all 749 -0.8% -10.2% 50% 49% -8.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.2% 49% -8.6%
10% -18.8% 49% -17.3%
15% -26.7% 48% -25.3%
20% -33.9% 47% -32.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -26% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +8% → late -9% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$12 · ×1.01 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.02 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

126d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$191
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses377 / 372
Open positions0
Markets (closed)749 / 749
History coverage126d
Avg bet$12
Trades / day6.3
Drawdown87%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 749 Trades
no open positions (364 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 29 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 29 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 29 $26 +$35 +134%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 24 $5 +$5 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 24 $5 +$4 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 24 $10 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 24 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 24 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 24 $26 +$23 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 24 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 24 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 24 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 24 $5 +$5 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 24 $5 +$5 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 24 $5 +$5 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 24 $5 +$5 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 24 $10 +$9 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 23 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 23 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 23 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 23 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 23 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 23 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 23 $26 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 23 $52 +$46 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 23 $38 −$36 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 23 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 23 $32 −$30 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 23 $31 −$2 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 23 $26 −$26 -100%
XRP Up or Down - April 30, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Apr 30 $26 +$19 +74%
XRP Up or Down - April 30, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Apr 30 $26 −$25 -95%
XRP Up or Down - April 30, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Apr 30 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Apr 28 $30 −$29 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Apr 28 $10 +$9 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Apr 28 $10 +$9 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Apr 28 $10 +$10 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Apr 28 $19 +$17 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Apr 28 $20 +$19 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Apr 28 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Apr 28 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Apr 28 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Apr 28 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Apr 28 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Apr 28 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Apr 28 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Apr 28 $10 −$9 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Apr 27 $50 −$29 -58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Apr 27 $20 +$6 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Apr 27 $30 +$1 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Up 32¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Up 41¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $5 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $26 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $26 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $26 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Down 37¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $26 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Down 18¢ $26 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $26 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $26 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $38 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $26 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1450 history records