Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T10:21:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7A 0x7a6f…6f14 other 101 markets active 2h ago coverage 452d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage✗ net negative once open positions are counted
Total PnL −$2 (-0%) realized +$2 · open −$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate36%36W / 64L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$74per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$92now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days−$14
14 days−$9
30 days+$13
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 47% +$9
other 24% −$8
politics 15% −$5
economics 12% $0
sports 0% $0
crypto 0% $0
culture 0% $0
finance 0% $0
tech 0% $0
weather 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-11.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -7.9% -16.6% 33% 22% -9.2%
≤30d 29 -1.8% -11.2% 45% 14% -8.7%
≤90d 34 -1.7% -11.1% 41% 12% -9.2%
all 100 -1.7% -11.1% 36% 4% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.1% 4% -9.3%
10% -19.6% 1% -18.0%
15% -27.4% 0% -25.9%
20% -34.5% 0% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 66% · top 2 72% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
89% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$2 · ×0.96 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.99 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

452d coverage
Net worth$92
Realized+$2
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses36 / 64
Open positions1
Markets (closed)100 / 101
History coverage452d
Avg bet$74
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 100 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Yes 53¢ 51¢ $96 $92 −$4 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $33 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 17 $354 +$2 +0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 16 $1 $0 +19%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Jun 16 $3 $0 -5%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $17 +$3 +15%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 14 $528 $0 +0%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 13 $158 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $65 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $276 −$18 -7%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $6 +$1 +12%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Jun 09 $199 $0 +0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 09 $195 +$4 +2%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 08 $113 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 07 $167 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 06 $9 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 05 $40 +$4 +9%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 04 $293 −$4 -1%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 02 $117 −$4 -4%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 01 $33 −$6 -19%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 29 $175 +$5 +3%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 29 $14 −$2 -16%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 26 $16 +$1 +4%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 25 $209 −$32 -15%
Iran leadership change by June 30? May 24 $211 −$2 -1%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 24 $7 $0 -3%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 24 $161 +$56 +35%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 23 $24 +$2 +8%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 22 $151 +$6 +4%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 21 $149 $0 +0%
Jeffrey Epstein foul play confirmed by December 31, 2026? May 13 $194 −$1 -1%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 24 $76 −$4 -6%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 23 $899 $0 +0%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Apr 21 $907 −$5 -0%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 21 $996 +$1 +0%
Will the Green Bay Packers win Super Bowl 2026? Jan 31 $3 $0 -1%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 16 $1 $0 +1%
Will Leeds United win on 2025-12-03? Nov 26 $4 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Rams win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 17 $1 $0 -9%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Oct 13 $6 $0 -1%
Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Oct 13 $8 $0 +6%
Will Brian Rast win the 2025 National Heads-Up Poker Championship? Oct 12 $5 $0 +0%
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2025 World Series? Oct 11 $15 $0 +0%
Will Trump announce Kevin Hassett as next Fed Chair in 2025? Oct 10 $10 $0 +0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Oct 10 $5 $0 +0%
Israel x Hamas ceasefire before 2026? Oct 10 $5 −$1 -21%
Will 'A Minecraft Movie' have the best domestic opening weekend in 202 Sep 28 $3 $0 -7%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential no Sep 27 $11 $0 +0%
Will Jeannette Jara win the Chilean presidential election? Sep 27 $5 $0 -0%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2025? Sep 27 $5 $0 +0%
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2025? Sep 26 $6 $0 -2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 53¢ $96 1h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 14¢ $17 9h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 14¢ $16 9h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 14¢ $33 10h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 10¢ $21 16h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 10¢ $21 16h
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 10¢ $0 43h
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? SELL Yes 6¢ $3 43h
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? BUY Yes 6¢ $3 2d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 7¢ $7 2d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 7¢ $9 2d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 7¢ $4 2d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $9 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $8 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 83¢ $150 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 83¢ $25 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 83¢ $175 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 85¢ $73 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 85¢ $87 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 84¢ $76 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 84¢ $32 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 84¢ $50 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 58¢ $173 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 58¢ $173 4d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $17 4d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $141 4d
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $158 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 22¢ $27 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 22¢ $11 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 22¢ $35 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $92.31 · official $92.31 (match) · 389 history records