Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T16:34:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
7A 0x7a77…85b2 crypto 116 markets active 1h ago coverage 16d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover
Total PnL +$633 (+3%) realized +$633 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate75%83W / 28L
Whale WR86%big bets
Drawdown81%max
Avg bet$163per market
Trades / day10.8pace
Fees−$22est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$53
7 days+$84
14 days+$239
30 days+$284
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 93% +$286
sports 6% −$20
other 1% +$18
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)+0.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 86 +12.1% +1.4% 77% 45% -9.1%
≤30d 111 +11.1% +0.5% 75% 48% -8.1%
≤90d 111 +11.1% +0.5% 75% 48% -8.1%
all 111 +11.1% +0.5% 75% 48% -8.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +0.5% 48% -8.1%
10% -9.1% 32% -16.9%
15% -17.9% 23% -25.0%
20% -25.9% 14% -32.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
35% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +11% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 86% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +9% → late +13% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$27 vs −$71 · ×0.39 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.14 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

16d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$633
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)75%
Wins / losses83 / 28
Whale WR (big bets)86%
Est. fees paid−$22
Open positions0
Markets (closed)111 / 116
History coverage16d
Avg bet$163
Trades / day10.8
Drawdown81%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 111 Trades
no open positions (3 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 15 $76 −$55 -71%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 15 $162 +$3 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 15 $161 +$2 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 15 $151 +$6 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 15 $150 +$5 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 15 $101 +$9 +9%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 15 $215 −$65 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 15 $91 +$10 +12%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 15 $152 −$106 -70%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 15 $152 +$39 +26%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 15 $129 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 15 $125 +$6 +5%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 15 $1,069 −$1,069 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET Jun 15 $613 +$264 +43%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 15 $103 +$58 +56%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 15 $101 +$7 +7%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $218 −$132 -61%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 15 $903 +$36 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 15 $66 +$8 +13%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 15 $805 +$74 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 15 $751 +$8 +1%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $56 +$52 +93%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $53 −$52 -99%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 14 $503 +$40 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 14 $476 +$9 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 14 $279 +$60 +22%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 14 $380 +$63 +16%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 14 $57 −$54 -94%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 14 $150 +$6 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 14 $100 +$3 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 14 $307 +$136 +44%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 14 $802 +$24 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 14 $882 +$8 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 14 $443 +$46 +10%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 14 $704 +$57 +8%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 14 $733 +$35 +5%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 14 $504 +$66 +13%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 14 $608 −$2 -0%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 14 $661 +$18 +3%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $34 +$27 +79%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $20 +$75 +365%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 14 $153 +$68 +44%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 14 $508 +$22 +4%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $25 +$27 +105%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $25 +$19 +73%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Brazil O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $17 +$4 +20%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 14 $76 +$23 +31%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $45 −$44 -98%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 13 $71 −$3 -4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 13 $101 +$23 +23%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET SELL Down 22¢ $22 41m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $76 41m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $162 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $161 49m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET SELL Up 99¢ $156 56m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $151 56m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $150 59m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET SELL Down 47¢ $150 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $215 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $91 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $101 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET SELL Up 26¢ $46 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET BUY Up 79¢ $152 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $192 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET BUY Down 77¢ $152 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $129 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $125 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $1,069 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30AM-10:35AM ET BUY Down 68¢ $613 1h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 2.5 AND Spread: Spain (-2.5) AND Will Uru BUY 16¢ $26 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $103 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET SELL Down 89¢ $108 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Down 82¢ $101 4h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca SELL Justin Gaethje 4¢ $24 11h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Justin Gaethje 27¢ $164 11h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca SELL Justin Gaethje 25¢ $62 11h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Justin Gaethje 21¢ $54 11h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $903 12h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 15, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $805 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $66 12h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $25.00 · 285 history records