Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T22:04:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
7A 0x7a79…0d92 crypto 191 markets active 0h ago coverage 88d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$4,967 (+21%) realized +$5,676 · open −$709
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR55%break-even
Win rate64%118W / 65L
Whale WR89%big bets
Drawdown9%max
Avg bet$124per market
Trades / day5.0pace
Fees−$29est.
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$2,338now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$3,125
7 days+$3,155
14 days+$3,155
30 days+$3,155
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 65% +$3,520
other 27% +$2,562
sports 8% −$79
weather 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +55%
net ROI/market (all)-2.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 +27.3% +15.1% 50% 50% +41.3%
≤30d 16 +27.3% +15.1% 50% 50% +41.3%
≤90d 183 +7.4% -2.8% 64% 55% +19.9%
all 183 +7.4% -2.8% 64% 55% +19.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -2.8% 55% +19.9%
10% -12.1% 52% +8.4%
15% -20.6% 51% -2.1%
20% -28.4% 46% -11.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 16% · top 2 30% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +32% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
15% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +7% · $-wt +32% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 89% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +5% → late +10% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$78 vs −$38 · ×2.05 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.73 per $1 lost it wins $3.73
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

88d coverage
Net worth$2,338
Realized+$5,676
Unrealized−$709
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses118 / 65
Whale WR (big bets)89%
Est. fees paid−$29
Open positions8
Markets (closed)183 / 191
History coverage88d
Avg bet$124
Trades / day5.0
Drawdown9%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 183 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? Yes 73¢ 56¢ $950 $722 −$228 (-24%)
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 1 Paraguay? Yes 11¢ 34¢ $220 $690 +$470 (+214%)
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-29? Yes 44¢ 40¢ $440 $405 −$35 (-8%)
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Germany 45¢ 19¢ $720 $304 −$416 (-58%)
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 1 Paraguay? Yes 16¢ 15¢ $117 $109 −$7 (-6%)
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 2 Paraguay? Yes 8¢ 7¢ $116 $106 −$10 (-9%)
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 0 Paraguay? Yes 16¢ 0¢ $368 $1 −$367 (-100%)
Exact Score: Germany 1 - 0 Paraguay? Yes 23¢ 0¢ $115 $0 −$115 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 1 Japan? Jun 29 $113 +$887 +785%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? Jun 29 $1,354 +$1,296 +96%
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 0 Japan? Jun 29 $101 −$98 -98%
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 0 Japan? Jun 29 $99 −$96 -97%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? Jun 28 $597 +$403 +67%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $864 +$136 +16%
Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw? Jun 28 $503 +$597 +119%
Will Paraguay vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 26 $302 +$98 +32%
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $521 +$297 +57%
Will Norway vs. France end in a draw? Jun 26 $60 −$60 -100%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $17 −$17 -99%
Will Türkiye vs. United States end in a draw? Jun 26 $203 −$200 -98%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $488 +$312 +64%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $202 −$200 -99%
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? Jun 24 $101 −$99 -98%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $103 −$101 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Apr 10 $5 +$3 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Apr 10 $5 +$4 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Apr 08 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Apr 08 $5 +$4 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Apr 08 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Apr 08 $5 +$4 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Apr 08 $5 +$3 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Apr 08 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Apr 08 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Apr 08 $5 +$4 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Apr 08 $5 +$4 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Apr 08 $5 +$2 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Apr 08 $5 +$4 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Apr 08 $5 +$4 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Apr 08 $5 +$3 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Apr 08 $5 +$4 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Apr 08 $5 +$3 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Apr 08 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Apr 08 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Apr 08 $5 +$4 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Apr 08 $5 +$3 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Apr 08 $5 +$3 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Apr 08 $5 +$4 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Apr 08 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Apr 08 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Apr 08 $5 +$4 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Apr 08 $5 +$3 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Apr 08 $5 +$4 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Apr 08 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Apr 08 $5 +$3 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Apr 08 $5 +$2 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Apr 08 $5 +$4 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Apr 08 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Apr 08 $5 +$4 +89%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 2 Paraguay? BUY Yes 8¢ $0 12m
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 2 Paraguay? BUY Yes 8¢ $0 13m
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 2 Paraguay? BUY Yes 8¢ $56 13m
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 2 Paraguay? BUY Yes 8¢ $62 13m
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 1 Paraguay? BUY Yes 16¢ $34 13m
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 1 Paraguay? BUY Yes 16¢ $28 13m
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 1 Paraguay? BUY Yes 16¢ $0 13m
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 1 Paraguay? BUY Yes 16¢ $28 13m
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 1 Paraguay? BUY Yes 16¢ $28 13m
Exact Score: Germany 1 - 0 Paraguay? BUY Yes 23¢ $0 57m
Exact Score: Germany 1 - 0 Paraguay? BUY Yes 23¢ $55 57m
Exact Score: Germany 1 - 0 Paraguay? BUY Yes 23¢ $62 57m
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 70¢ $212 1h
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 1 Paraguay? BUY Yes 11¢ $226 1h
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 0 Paraguay? BUY Yes 16¢ $377 1h
Spread: Germany (-1.5) BUY Germany 45¢ $651 1h
Spread: Germany (-1.5) BUY Germany 45¢ $67 1h
Spread: Germany (-1.5) BUY Germany 45¢ $2 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 30¢ $120 4h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 29¢ $296 4h
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 0 Japan? BUY Yes 14¢ $101 11h
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 1 Japan? BUY Yes 11¢ $113 11h
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 0 Japan? BUY Yes 12¢ $99 11h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 58¢ $117 18h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY No 43¢ $203 20h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 44¢ $447 31h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 74¢ $746 31h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? BUY Yes 59¢ $597 31h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 58¢ $617 31h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 86¢ $864 43h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,337.55 · official $2,337.90 (match) · 693 history records