Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T03:08:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
7A 0x7a7c…42bf crypto 65 markets active 2h ago coverage 242d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$74 (+0%) realized +$72 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate90%57W / 6L
Whale WR94%big bets
Drawdown8%max
Avg bet$1,232per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$4,406now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$4
7 days+$16
14 days+$31
30 days+$26
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 83% +$73
politics 5% −$4
world 4% +$6
other 3% −$1
tech 3% +$3
culture 2% −$1
sports 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 17 -0.6% -10.0% 88% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 19 -0.5% -10.0% 89% 0% -9.4%
all 63 -0.1% -9.6% 90% 0% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 0% -9.4%
10% -18.2% 0% -18.1%
15% -26.1% 0% -26.0%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 94% (≥$1,369) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +0% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.8 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×7.56 per $1 lost it wins $7.56
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

242d coverage
Net worth$4,406
Realized+$72
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)90%
Wins / losses57 / 6
Whale WR (big bets)94%
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions2
Markets (closed)63 / 65
History coverage242d
Avg bet$1,232
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown8%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 63 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $72,000 June 15-21? No 100¢ 100¢ $2,963 $2,963 +$0 (+0%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $54,000 June 15-21? No 100¢ 100¢ $1,442 $1,443 +$2 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 19? Jun 19 $1,441 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 18? Jun 18 $2,960 +$3 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $1,439 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $2,957 +$3 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $1,438 +$1 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,000 June 8-14? Jun 15 $1,435 +$3 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on June 14? Jun 14 $570 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $52,000 on June 13? Jun 13 $2,954 +$3 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $52,000 on June 12? Jun 12 $1,434 +$1 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 12 $2,948 +$6 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $1,432 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 9? Jun 09 $1,431 +$1 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $2,300 June 1-7? Jun 08 $180 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 June 1-7? Jun 08 $1,246 +$5 +0%
Will Caleb Wilson be the 4th overall pick in the 2026 NBA Draft? Jun 01 $46 −$3 -6%
Will Reya launch a token by June 30, 2026? May 31 $46 −$3 -6%
Will Ethereum dip to $400 in April? May 22 $36 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on April 7? Apr 08 $1,138 +$1 +0%
Will XRP dip to $0.20 in January? Apr 06 $34 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $100 on January 10? Jan 11 $107 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $110 on January 10? Jan 11 $1,171 +$1 +0%
Will the price of XRP be less than $1.40 on January 8? Jan 09 $1,278 +$1 +0%
Will the price of XRP be between $1.60 and $1.70 on January 6? Jan 07 $268 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be between $1.50 and $1.60 on January 6? Jan 07 $1,009 +$1 +0%
Will Solana dip to $120 December 29-January 4? Jan 05 $1,276 +$1 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $2.40 on January 4? Jan 05 $1,274 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $96,000 on January 2? Jan 03 $1,273 +$1 +0%
Will Solana reach $150 in December? Jan 01 $1,271 +$3 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $90 on December 30? Dec 31 $1,269 +$1 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $82,000 December 22-28? Dec 29 $37 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $78,000 December 22-28? Dec 29 $571 +$1 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,200 December 22-28? Dec 29 $659 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Solana be less than $80 on December 28? Dec 29 $1,267 +$1 +0%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close at <$150 on the final day of trading of the w Dec 27 $1,265 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $150 on December 25? Dec 26 $1,264 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $94,000 on December 23? Dec 24 $1,263 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $140 on December 22? Dec 23 $1,262 +$1 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $2,400 December 15-21? Dec 22 $1,260 +$1 +0%
Will the price of XRP be less than $1.60 on December 20? Dec 21 $1,259 +$1 +0%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) finish week of December 15 above $205? Dec 20 $1,258 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $94,000 and $96,000 on December 1 Dec 19 $1,257 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $94,000 on December 17? Dec 18 $1,255 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $94,000 on December 16? Dec 17 $1,253 +$3 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $2.50 on December 15? Dec 16 $1,251 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,700 on December 13? Dec 14 $1,250 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,700 on December 12? Dec 13 $1,249 +$1 +0%
Will the price of XRP be between $2.50 and $2.60 on December 11? Dec 12 $1,248 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Solana be between $160 and $170 on December 10? Dec 11 $1,245 +$3 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,700 on December 9? Dec 10 $1,242 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on December 8? Dec 09 $1,241 +$1 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bitcoin dip to $54,000 June 15-21? BUY No 100¢ $445 1h
Will Bitcoin dip to $54,000 June 15-21? BUY No 100¢ $997 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $72,000 June 15-21? BUY No 100¢ $2,963 21h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 19? BUY No 100¢ $1,441 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 18? BUY Yes 100¢ $2,960 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 17? BUY Yes 100¢ $1,439 4d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $1,438 4d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 16? BUY Yes 100¢ $2,957 5d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $570 5d
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,000 June 8-14? BUY No 100¢ $1,435 6d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $52,000 on June 13? BUY Yes 100¢ $2,954 7d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $52,000 on June 12? BUY Yes 100¢ $1,434 8d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on June 10? BUY No 100¢ $1,432 10d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 9? BUY No 100¢ $1,431 11d
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? BUY Yes 100¢ $2,948 12d
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 June 1-7? BUY No 100¢ $11 12d
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 June 1-7? BUY No 100¢ $1,235 12d
Will Ethereum reach $2,300 June 1-7? BUY No 100¢ $180 12d
Will Caleb Wilson be the 4th overall pick in the 2026 NBA Draft? SELL No 27¢ $43 18d
Will Caleb Wilson be the 4th overall pick in the 2026 NBA Draft? BUY No 28¢ $10 18d
Will Caleb Wilson be the 4th overall pick in the 2026 NBA Draft? BUY No 28¢ $36 18d
Will Reya launch a token by June 30, 2026? SELL No 83¢ $44 19d
Will Reya launch a token by June 30, 2026? BUY No 87¢ $46 20d
Will Ethereum dip to $400 in April? BUY No 100¢ $36 72d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on April 7? BUY Yes 100¢ $1,138 73d
Will XRP dip to $0.20 in January? BUY No 100¢ $34 159d
Will the price of Solana be above $110 on January 10? BUY Yes 100¢ $1,040 161d
Will the price of Solana be above $110 on January 10? BUY Yes 100¢ $131 161d
Will the price of Solana be above $100 on January 10? BUY Yes 100¢ $107 161d
Will the price of XRP be less than $1.40 on January 8? BUY No 100¢ $1,278 164d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4,406.10 · official $4,406.10 (match) · 151 history records