Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T20:34:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0

score

7A 0x7a7d…d997 other 4 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover

Total PnL +$37 (+1%) realized +$36 · open +$1

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip

Net edge-31%after slip

Net WR33%break-even

Win rate33%1W / 2L

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$1,301per market

Trades / day9.5pace

Kalshi-fit0%portable

Net worth$21now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +33%

net ROI/market (all)-22.2%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	3	-14.0%	-22.2%	33%	33%	-34.0%
≤30d	3	-14.0%	-22.2%	33%	33%	-34.0%
≤90d	3	-14.0%	-22.2%	33%	33%	-34.0%
all	3	-14.0%	-22.2%	33%	33%	-34.0%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover9.5 tr/day

realistic slip~11%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal	-22.2%	33%	-34.0%
10% ← realistic here	-29.6%	33%	-40.3%
15%	-36.4%	33%	-46.1%
20%	-42.7%	33%	-51.4%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 100% · top 2 100% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -27% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -14% · $-wt -27% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$40 vs −$721 · ×0.06 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×0.03 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage

Net worth$21

Realized+$36

Unrealized+$1

Win rate (resolved)33%

Wins / losses1 / 2

Open positions1

Markets (closed)3 / 4

History coverage1d

Avg bet$1,301

Trades / day9.5

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit0%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 3 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 0 Paraguay?	Yes	10¢	10¢	$20	$21	+$1 (+5%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29?	Jun 29	$5,115	−$1,422	-28%
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 3 Japan?	Jun 29	$21	−$20	-97%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28?	Jun 28	$47	+$40	+86%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 0 Paraguay?	BUY Yes	10¢	$21	1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29?	SELL Yes	100¢	$138	1h
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 3 Japan?	BUY Yes	3¢	$21	2h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29?	BUY Yes	29¢	$41	3h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29?	SELL Yes	27¢	$1,227	3h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29?	SELL Yes	55¢	$2,328	4h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29?	BUY Yes	56¢	$4,988	6h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29?	BUY Yes	58¢	$87	23h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28?	SELL Yes	100¢	$87	23h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28?	BUY Yes	53¢	$47	26h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $21.00 · official $21.00 (match) · 10 history records