Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T04:21:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7A 0x7a80…1f2b sports 201 markets active 2h ago coverage 168d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$15 (-0%) realized −$15 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate9%18W / 182L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$49per market
Trades / day4.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$40now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 25% −$4
politics 22% −$4
sports 22% −$3
culture 9% −$1
crypto 7% −$2
world 7% −$1
economics 6% −$2
finance 1% $0
tech 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 2 -0.4% -9.9% 0% 0% -9.9%
≤90d 23 -0.2% -9.7% 4% 0% -9.7%
all 200 -0.6% -10.1% 9% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.1% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.7% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.6% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.8% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 33% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.93 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.13 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

168d coverage
Net worth$40
Realized−$15
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)9%
Wins / losses18 / 182
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)200 / 201
History coverage168d
Avg bet$49
Trades / day4.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 200 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 95¢ 94¢ $40 $40 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $42 $0 -0%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom May 31 $40 $0 -0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 18 $40 $0 +1%
Will Ludvig Aberg win the 2026 Masters tournament? Mar 29 $112 $0 -0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? Mar 29 $33 $0 -0%
Will Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Mar 29 $80 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $10,000 by December 31, 2026? Mar 29 $40 $0 -0%
Will Australia win Eurovision 2026? Mar 29 $76 $0 -0%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Mar 28 $159 −$1 -0%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 28 $47 $0 -0%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 28 $132 $0 -0%
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 28 $91 $0 -0%
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Mar 27 $69 $0 -0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of March? Mar 27 $37 $0 -0%
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 27 $84 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2026 World Series? Mar 26 $132 $0 -0%
Will Connecticut win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Mar 26 $32 $0 -0%
Netanyahu out by April 30? Mar 26 $32 $0 -0%
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 25 $135 $0 -0%
Will Narendra Modi win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Mar 25 $40 $0 +0%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Mar 25 $374 $0 -0%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee Mar 24 $39 $0 -0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 24 $73 $0 -0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of March? Mar 23 $44 $0 +0%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Mar 23 $34 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 23 $46 $0 +1%
Will Arkansas win the 2026 NCAA Tournament? Mar 23 $43 $0 -0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of March? Mar 22 $39 $0 +0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? Mar 22 $112 $0 -0%
Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Mar 22 $344 −$1 -0%
Will the San Francisco 49ers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Mar 21 $39 $0 +0%
Will Dominique de Villepin win the 2027 French presidential election? Mar 21 $75 $0 -1%
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? Mar 20 $83 $0 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 20 $71 $0 -0%
Will Jean Castex win the 2027 French presidential election? Mar 20 $94 $0 -0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 19 $86 $0 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 19 $80 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 18 $134 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Bowman be confirmed as Fed Chair? Mar 17 $38 $0 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 17 $58 $0 -0%
Will Greece win Eurovision 2026? Mar 16 $44 $0 -0%
Will Gabriel Attal win the 2027 French presidential election? Mar 16 $43 $0 -0%
Will Israel win Eurovision 2026? Mar 16 $79 $0 -0%
Will François Hollande win the 2027 French presidential election? Mar 15 $37 $0 -1%
Will the Montreal Canadiens win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Mar 15 $42 $0 +0%
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Mar 13 $138 $0 +0%
Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 13 $152 $0 -0%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 13 $44 $0 -0%
Will Sébastien Lecornu win the 2027 French presidential election? Mar 12 $39 $0 +0%
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2026 World Series? Mar 12 $127 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 95¢ $40 1h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $42 7d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $42 7d
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom SELL No 91¢ $40 21d
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom BUY No 91¢ $40 21d
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 96¢ $41 34d
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 95¢ $40 35d
Will Ludvig Aberg win the 2026 Masters tournament? SELL No 94¢ $42 84d
Will Ludvig Aberg win the 2026 Masters tournament? BUY No 95¢ $42 84d
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 98¢ $33 84d
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 98¢ $33 84d
Will Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 97¢ $39 84d
Will Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 97¢ $39 84d
Will Bitcoin dip to $10,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 95¢ $40 84d
Will Bitcoin dip to $10,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $40 85d
Will Australia win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 92¢ $37 85d
Will Australia win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 92¢ $37 85d
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 94¢ $40 85d
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 94¢ $41 85d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 93¢ $39 85d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 93¢ $39 85d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 94¢ $36 85d
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 95¢ $36 85d
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $36 85d
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $36 86d
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 94¢ $31 86d
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 94¢ $32 86d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of March? SELL No 95¢ $36 86d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of March? BUY No 95¢ $32 86d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of March? BUY No 95¢ $5 86d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $39.60 · official $39.60 (match) · 789 history records