Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T17:53:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
7A 0x7a80…729c other 301 markets active 65d ago coverage 75d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 74d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$8,449 (+28%) realized +$8,078 · open +$371
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR22%break-even
Win rate27%75W / 205L
Whale WR62%big bets
Drawdown38%max
Avg bet$100per market
Trades / day42.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$5,806now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$31
7 days+$31
14 days+$31
30 days+$31
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 30% +$1,298
other 24% −$1,065
world 20% +$1,228
tech 11% +$4,424
finance 8% +$50
crypto 4% +$56
culture 2% −$64
sports 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +22%
net ROI/market (all)-2.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 +3.4% -6.5% 25% 25% +50.9%
≤30d 12 +3.4% -6.5% 25% 25% +50.9%
≤90d 152 -52.9% -57.4% 16% 13% -24.6%
all 280 +7.9% -2.4% 27% 22% +10.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover42.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -2.4% 22% +10.3%
10% ← realistic here -11.7% 20% -0.3%
15% -20.2% 20% -9.9%
20% -28.1% 18% -18.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 39% · top 2 47% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -17% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +8% · $-wt +22% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 62% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +77% → late -61% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
7.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$168 vs −$34 · ×4.87 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.8 per $1 lost it wins $1.8
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

75d coverage
Net worth$5,806
Realized+$8,078
Unrealized+$371
Win rate (resolved)27%
Wins / losses75 / 205
Whale WR (big bets)62%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions34
Markets (closed)280 / 301
History coverage75d ⚠
Avg bet$100
Trades / day42.2
Drawdown38%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 34 History 280 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? No 43¢ 86¢ $1,361 $2,696 +$1,335 (+98%)
5kt meteor strike in 2026? Yes 39¢ 36¢ $339 $314 −$24 (-7%)
Natural Disaster in 2026? Yes 30¢ 24¢ $331 $270 −$61 (-19%)
SAVE Act becomes law by December 31, 2026? Yes 17¢ 24¢ $142 $199 +$57 (+40%)
Will PT win the most seats in the 2025 Guinea-Bissau National People’s Assembly election? No 85¢ 100¢ $152 $179 +$27 (+18%)
Grok 5 released by June 30, 2026? No 18¢ 100¢ $27 $156 +$128 (+467%)
Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Yes 3¢ 11¢ $43 $156 +$112 (+259%)
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 1¢ 2¢ $47 $83 +$36 (+75%)
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Yes 3¢ 2¢ $111 $69 −$43 (-38%)
Nothing Ever Happens: 2026 No 65¢ 16¢ $235 $60 −$175 (-75%)
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Yes 3¢ 1¢ $101 $34 −$68 (-67%)
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $43 $29 −$14 (-33%)
Will Meta have a #1 AI model by June 30? No 86¢ 100¢ $22 $26 +$4 (+16%)
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $27 $23 −$3 (-12%)
Will PS win the most seats in the 2025 Guinea-Bissau National People’s Assembly election? Yes 0¢ 4¢ $2 $19 +$17 (+835%)
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $22 $16 −$5 (-24%)
Will the International Court of Justice win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Yes 3¢ 2¢ $19 $15 −$4 (-23%)
Will Narendra Modi win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Yes 2¢ 3¢ $8 $13 +$4 (+49%)
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $12 $10 −$3 (-23%)
Will OpenAI have a #1 AI model by June 30? Yes 30¢ 1¢ $335 $7 −$328 (-98%)
Will xAI have a #1 AI model by June 30? Yes 20¢ 0¢ $502 $6 −$496 (-99%)
Will OpenAI announce earbuds or headphones in 2026? Yes 27¢ 27¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+0%)
Will Vladimir Putin win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $9 $4 −$6 (-58%)
Will OpenAI announce a watch in 2026? Yes 16¢ 18¢ $2 $3 +$0 (+11%)
Will FREPASNA win the most seats in the 2025 Guinea-Bissau National People’s Assembly election? Yes 0¢ 4¢ $0 $2 +$2 (+3650%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 101 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Anthropic run an Ad during Super Bowl LX? Jun 29 $11 +$64 +577%
Caroline Ellison new boyfriend by January 31? Jun 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Claude 5 be released on February 7, 2026? Jun 29 $1 +$1 +46%
Will Apple be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on Jun 29 $11 −$11 -100%
Another critical Cloudflare incident by January 31? Jun 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Nvidia run an Ad during Super Bowl LX? Jun 29 $7 −$7 -100%
Will Rashid Shaheed win the Super Bowl LX MVP? Jun 29 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Chloé Zhao win Best Director at the 98th Academy Awards? Jun 29 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Elon Musk's net worth be between $650b and $660b on January 31? Jun 29 $0 +$1 +317%
Will Marcus Jones win the Super Bowl LX MVP? Jun 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Will xAI or X run an Ad during Super Bowl LX? Jun 29 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the Liberal Democratic Party win by between 130 and 159 seats? Jun 29 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 1280-1319 tweets in March 2026? Apr 27 $19 −$19 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from March 21 to March 23, 2026? Apr 27 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Claude 5 be released by February 28, 2026? Apr 27 $25 −$25 -100%
Will a dozen eggs cost <$2.30 in February? Apr 27 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 9:00AM-9:15AM ET Apr 27 $204 −$98 -48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Apr 27 $102 −$102 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 12, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Apr 27 $96 −$96 -100%
Will xAI have the #3 AI model at the end of February 2026? Apr 27 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Apr 27 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Apr 27 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Apr 27 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from March 17 to March 24, 2026? Apr 27 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Apr 27 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from April 2 to April 4, 2026? Apr 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from April 2 to April 4, 2026? Apr 27 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Apr 27 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from March 17 to March 24, 2026? Apr 27 $16 −$16 -100%
Will Leonardo DiCaprio win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards? Apr 27 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from February 3 to February 10, 202 Apr 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from February 6 to February 13, 202 Apr 27 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the US add between 125k and 150k jobs in February? Apr 27 $25 −$25 -100%
Will the number of Israel Rocket Alerts since Operation Lion's Roar be Apr 27 $31 −$31 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from March 21 to March 23, 2026? Apr 27 $34 −$33 -96%
Will Trump deport 1,500,000-1,750,000 people? Apr 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Trump deport 750,000-1,000,000 people? Apr 27 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Apple be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on Apr 27 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from February 9 to February 11, 202 Apr 27 $55 −$14 -26%
Will Grok 4.20 be released on February 13, 2026? Apr 27 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Trump deport 1,000,000-1,250,000 people? Apr 27 $2 −$2 -100%
Will CDU win the second most seats in the 2026 Rhineland-Palatinate pa Apr 27 $153 −$153 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from March 19 to March 21, 2026? Apr 27 $206 −$206 -100%
Will xAI have the third-best AI model at the end of March 2026? Apr 27 $16 −$16 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from April 9 to April 11, 2026? Apr 27 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from February 16 to February 18, 20 Apr 27 $29 −$29 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from March 26 to March 28, 2026? Apr 27 $1 −$1 -100%
S&P 500 (SPX) Opens Up or Down on February 12? Apr 27 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from March 26 to March 28, 2026? Apr 27 $18 −$18 -100%
Will Trump deport 1,750,000-2,000,000 people? Apr 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will xAI have the #1 AI model at the end of April 2026 (Style Control BUY Yes 0¢ $0 65d
Will xAI have the #1 AI model at the end of April 2026 (Style Control BUY Yes 0¢ $0 65d
Will xAI have the #1 AI model at the end of April 2026 (Style Control BUY Yes 0¢ $0 65d
Will xAI have the #1 AI model at the end of April 2026 (Style Control BUY Yes 0¢ $0 65d
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 65d
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 65d
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 65d
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 65d
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 65d
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $2 65d
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 65d
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 65d
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 65d
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 65d
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 65d
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $2 65d
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 65d
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 65d
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 65d
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 65d
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 65d
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 65d
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 65d
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $2 65d
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 65d
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $3 65d
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 65d
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 65d
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 65d
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 65d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5,806.30 · official $5,806.41 (match) · 3500 history records