Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T20:55:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7A 0x7a81…a925 sports 81 markets active 2h ago coverage 114d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$951 (-13%) realized −$917 · open −$34
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -48% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -53% what you keep after slip
Net edge-53%after slip
Net WR19%break-even
Win rate22%18W / 62L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$88per market
Trades / day1.7pace
Fees−$54est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$5now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$29
7 days−$31
14 days−$31
30 days−$31
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 62% −$639
sports 32% −$108
other 6% −$186
politics 1% −$34
weather 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +19%
net ROI/market (all)-52.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -12.6% -20.9% 40% 40% -27.2%
≤30d 5 -12.6% -20.9% 40% 40% -27.2%
≤90d 55 -51.6% -56.2% 22% 20% -18.4%
all 80 -47.9% -52.9% 22% 19% -21.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -52.9% 19% -21.7%
10% -57.4% 16% -29.2%
15% -61.5% 15% -36.0%
20% -65.3% 12% -42.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 48% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -48% · $-wt -15% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -52% → late -44% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$104 vs −$45 · ×2.3 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.67 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

114d coverage
Net worth$5
Realized−$917
Unrealized−$34
Win rate (resolved)22%
Wins / losses18 / 62
Est. fees paid−$54
Open positions1
Markets (closed)80 / 81
History coverage114d
Avg bet$88
Trades / day1.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 80 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Trump speak to Mojtaba Khamenei in June? Yes 9¢ 1¢ $39 $5 −$34 (-88%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 41 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Argentina leading at halftime? Jun 22 $31 +$61 +200%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $26 +$10 +37%
Argentina vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 22 $10 −$10 -97%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $33 −$32 -97%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $61 −$60 -98%
Will Israel conduct military action against Iran by April 21, 2026? Apr 19 $259 −$66 -25%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Rio Playoffs Apr 18 $194 −$189 -98%
Will Israel take military action in Gaza on April 10, 2026? Apr 15 $382 −$382 -100%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-04-14? Apr 14 $107 −$105 -97%
Will UAE strike Iran by April 30? Apr 14 $681 +$622 +91%
Will Iran strike Cyprus by April 30, 2026? Apr 14 $34 −$34 -100%
Will Israel conduct military action against Iran by April 14, 2026? Apr 14 $130 +$34 +26%
Will Kuwait strike Iran by April 30? Apr 13 $21 −$21 -100%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Liquid (BO3) - IEM Rio Group A Apr 13 $26 −$25 -97%
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Rio Group A Apr 13 $50 −$49 -98%
Hapoel Tel Aviv vs. Olympiacos B.C. Apr 09 $22 −$21 -96%
Will Qatar strike Iran by April 30? Apr 09 $70 −$30 -44%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-08? Apr 08 $54 −$53 -97%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs 3DMAX (BO3) - PGL Bucharest Group Stage Apr 08 $45 −$45 -100%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs EYEBALLERS (BO3) - PGL Bucharest Group Stage Apr 08 $30 −$30 -100%
Counter-Strike: UNO MILLE vs Fake do Biru (BO3) - ESL Challenger Leagu Apr 07 $12 −$12 -97%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Wildcard (BO3) - PGL Bucharest Group Sta Apr 07 $41 −$40 -97%
Counter-Strike: UNO MILLE vs ALKA (BO3) - BetBoom Storm Playoffs Apr 06 $5 −$5 -97%
Counter-Strike: ex-MINLATE vs Bebop (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #20 Grou Apr 06 $116 +$95 +82%
Israeli forces cross the Litani River by June 30? Apr 06 $591 +$66 +11%
Counter-Strike: Alliance vs fnatic (BO3) - DraculaN Playoffs Mar 31 $50 −$49 -98%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs Aurora Gaming (BO3) - DraculaN Playoffs Mar 31 $200 +$9 +5%
Counter-Strike: ECSTATIC vs MINLATE (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #19 Play Mar 31 $100 −$97 -97%
Counter-Strike: fnatic vs FaZe (BO3) - DraculaN Playoffs Mar 31 $100 +$58 +58%
Counter-Strike: HAVU vs Liquid (BO3) - DraculaN Playoffs Mar 31 $150 −$146 -98%
Counter-Strike: Passion UA vs FaZe (BO3) - DraculaN Playoffs Mar 31 $75 −$24 -32%
Counter-Strike: ex-RUBY vs Bebop (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #20 Group S Mar 31 $22 −$21 -97%
Bucharest Open: Gabi Boitan vs Elmer Moeller Mar 31 $24 −$23 -97%
Counter-Strike: Ground Zero vs Abyssal (BO3) - PGL Astana: Oceania Clo Mar 31 $20 −$19 -97%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs Legacy (BO5) - FERJEE In House Playoffs Mar 31 $40 +$128 +319%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs G2 (BO3) - Roman Imperium Cup Playoffs Mar 30 $153 +$277 +182%
Counter-Strike: BIG EQUIPA vs The Last Resort (BO3) - ESL Challenger L Mar 30 $15 −$15 -100%
Credit One Charleston Open: Eva Lys vs Katie Volynets Mar 30 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Iran strike Turkey in March? Mar 30 $415 −$211 -51%
Houthi strike on Israel by March 31, 2026? Mar 30 $406 −$264 -65%
Counter-Strike: Sinners vs BIG (BO3) - BC Game Masters Championship Pl Mar 26 $44 −$44 -100%
Counter-Strike: Leo Team vs CSDIILIT (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #19 Gr Mar 26 $35 −$35 -100%
Will Romania win on 2026-03-26? Mar 26 $39 −$39 -100%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Sinners (BO3) - BC Game Masters Champi Mar 26 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the US strike Venezuela next? Mar 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the US strike Iran next? Mar 26 $20 −$20 -100%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs Magna (BO3) - FERJEE In House Group A Mar 26 $7 −$7 -100%
Counter-Strike: Ground Zero vs Rooster (BO3) - ESL Challenger League O Mar 26 $229 +$257 +112%
Counter-Strike: STATE vs BIG Academy (BO3) - United21 Playoffs Mar 26 $40 −$40 -100%
Counter-Strike: Alliance vs ReThink (BO3) - Journey Group D Mar 26 $20 −$20 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 85¢ $36 2h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 61¢ $26 3h
Argentina leading at halftime? BUY Yes 33¢ $31 3h
Argentina vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY Yes 10¢ $10 3h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 11¢ $21 25h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 11¢ $12 25h
Will Trump speak to Mojtaba Khamenei in June? BUY Yes 9¢ $39 6d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 10¢ $5 6d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 16¢ $5 7d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 26¢ $51 7d
Will Israel conduct military action against Iran by April 21, 2026? BUY Yes 8¢ $162 64d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Rio Playoffs BUY FURIA 17¢ $194 65d
Will Israel conduct military action against Iran by April 21, 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $194 65d
Will Israel conduct military action against Iran by April 21, 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $97 65d
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-04-14? BUY Yes 10¢ $64 69d
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-04-14? BUY Yes 26¢ $44 69d
Will UAE strike Iran by April 30? BUY Yes 10¢ $100 69d
Will Iran strike Cyprus by April 30, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $4 69d
Will Israel conduct military action against Iran by April 14, 2026? SELL Yes 1¢ $4 69d
Will Kuwait strike Iran by April 30? BUY Yes 4¢ $21 70d
Will Israel conduct military action against Iran by April 14, 2026? BUY Yes 5¢ $5 70d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Liquid (BO3) - IEM Rio Group A BUY Liquid 5¢ $6 70d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Liquid (BO3) - IEM Rio Group A BUY Liquid 6¢ $20 70d
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Rio Group A BUY Gentle Mates 18¢ $50 70d
Will Israel conduct military action against Iran by April 14, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $25 70d
Will Israel conduct military action against Iran by April 14, 2026? SELL Yes 24¢ $159 71d
Will Israel conduct military action against Iran by April 14, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $10 71d
Will Israel conduct military action against Iran by April 14, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $10 71d
Will Israel conduct military action against Iran by April 14, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $10 71d
Will Israel conduct military action against Iran by April 14, 2026? BUY Yes 19¢ $20 71d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4.53 · official $4.53 (match) · 204 history records