Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:17:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7A 0x7a81…f6fe crypto 687 markets active 6d ago coverage 94d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$857 (-10%) realized −$857 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate56%387W / 300L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$12per market
Trades / day11.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$110
14 days−$336
30 days−$460
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$1,115
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-17.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 133 -11.9% -20.3% 61% 46% -16.7%
≤30d 536 -7.5% -16.3% 58% 52% -16.1%
≤90d 681 -9.0% -17.6% 56% 50% -21.3%
all 687 -8.9% -17.6% 56% 50% -21.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.6% 50% -21.4%
10% -25.5% 35% -29.0%
15% -32.7% 18% -35.8%
20% -39.3% 7% -42.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -13% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -12% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$9 · ×0.46 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.59 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

94d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$857
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses387 / 300
Open positions0
Markets (closed)687 / 687
History coverage94d
Avg bet$12
Trades / day11.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 687 Trades
no open positions (25 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 11 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET Jun 11 $5 +$2 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 11 $6 −$6 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 11 $8 −$7 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 11 $7 +$2 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 11 $9 −$8 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 11 $8 +$2 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 11 $8 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 11 $7 −$7 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 11 $9 −$9 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 11 $9 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 11 $9 +$2 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 11 $8 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 11 $8 +$4 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 11 $7 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 11 $7 +$2 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 11 $9 −$9 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 11 $8 +$5 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 11 $11 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 11 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 11 $8 +$15 +198%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 11 $6 +$6 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 11 $6 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 11 $8 −$8 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 11 $7 +$2 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 11 $9 −$9 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 11 $9 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 11 $9 +$3 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 11 $8 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 11 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 11 $11 −$10 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 11 $10 +$4 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 11 $11 −$11 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 11 $11 −$11 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 11 $21 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 11 $11 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 11 $11 +$3 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 11 $11 −$11 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 11 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 11 $11 −$11 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 11 $11 +$5 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 11 $11 −$11 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 11 $11 +$4 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 11 $11 −$11 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 11 $11 −$11 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 11 $11 +$4 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 11 $11 +$3 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 11 $11 −$11 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 11 $11 +$4 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 11 $11 −$11 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Up 5¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET BUY Up 74¢ $5 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 66¢ $6 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Up 39¢ $8 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET BUY Up 74¢ $7 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $9 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 78¢ $8 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $8 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET BUY Down 66¢ $7 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Up 78¢ $9 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET SELL Down 99¢ $10 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET BUY Down 86¢ $9 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Up 82¢ $9 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $8 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $8 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $7 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Up 74¢ $7 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 77¢ $9 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $8 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $11 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $10 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Up 32¢ $8 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $6 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $6 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET BUY Up 74¢ $8 5d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Up 81¢ $7 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET BUY Down 87¢ $9 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $9 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Down 73¢ $9 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET SELL Up 98¢ $9 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1432 history records