Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T06:07:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
7A 0x7a82…a163 other 15 markets active 2h ago coverage 257d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$104 (-33%) realized −$104 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -27% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -34% what you keep after slip
Net edge-34%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate33%4W / 8L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit13%portable
Net worth$70now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$12
7 days+$2
14 days+$2
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 68% −$3
politics 29% −$90
economics 3% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-34.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -13.8% -22.0% 50% 50% -6.4%
≤30d 4 -13.8% -22.0% 50% 50% -6.4%
≤90d 4 -13.8% -22.0% 50% 50% -6.4%
all 12 -27.1% -34.1% 33% 33% -48.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -34.1% 33% -48.4%
10% -40.4% 25% -53.3%
15% -46.1% 25% -57.8%
20% -51.4% 25% -62.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 46% · top 2 74% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -27% · $-wt -43% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -71% → late +17% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$19 · ×0.62 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.31 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

257d coverage
Net worth$70
Realized−$104
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses4 / 8
Open positions3
Markets (closed)12 / 15
History coverage257d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit13%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 12 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Yes 84¢ 84¢ $50 $50 +$0 (+1%)
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Yes 66¢ 66¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Yes 64¢ 64¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $5 +$7 +134%
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $50 +$5 +11%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Norway win on 2025-11-16? Jan 20 $5 +$13 +257%
Will Bulgaria win on 2025-11-15? Nov 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Northern Ireland win on 2025-11-14? Nov 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Powell say "Recession" during October press conference? Oct 29 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Bulgaria win on 2025-10-11? Oct 11 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2025-10-09? Oct 09 $30 +$22 +72%
Will Czechia win on 2025-10-09? Oct 09 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Trump say "Friend of mine" during events with President of Finlan Oct 09 $90 −$90 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 66¢ $10 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 84¢ $50 1h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 64¢ $10 1h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 42¢ $5 3d
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 90¢ $50 3d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 25¢ $5 6d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 16¢ $5 6d
Will Norway win on 2025-11-16? BUY Yes 28¢ $5 220d
Will Bulgaria win on 2025-11-15? BUY Yes 3¢ $5 220d
Will Northern Ireland win on 2025-11-14? BUY Yes 24¢ $5 220d
Will Powell say "Recession" during October press conference? BUY Yes 29¢ $10 236d
Will Bulgaria win on 2025-10-11? BUY Yes 8¢ $10 254d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2025-10-09? SELL Yes 88¢ $52 256d
Will Czechia win on 2025-10-09? BUY Yes 19¢ $20 256d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2025-10-09? BUY Yes 51¢ $30 256d
Will Trump say "Friend of mine" during events with President of Finlan BUY Yes 49¢ $90 256d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $70.14 · official $70.14 (match) · 19 history records