Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T23:41:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7A 0x7a85…9b97 crypto 47 markets active 1h ago coverage 3d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ only 3d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL +$200 (+4%) realized +$200 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -28% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -44% what you keep after slip
Net edge-44%after slip
Net WR26%break-even
Win rate28%13W / 34L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$120per market
Trades / day41.0pace
Fees−$14est.
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 83% −$938
other 9% −$207
sports 8% −$68
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)-34.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 47 -27.5% -34.4% 28% 26% -31.6%
≤30d 47 -27.5% -34.4% 28% 26% -31.6%
≤90d 47 -27.5% -34.4% 28% 26% -31.6%
all 47 -27.5% -34.4% 28% 26% -31.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover41.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -34.4% 26% -31.6%
10% ← realistic here -40.7% 26% -38.2%
15% -46.4% 26% -44.2%
20% -51.7% 26% -49.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 29% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -25% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -28% · $-wt -25% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late -57% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$153 vs −$94 · ×1.62 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.62 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$200
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)28%
Wins / losses13 / 34
Est. fees paid−$14
Open positions0
Markets (closed)47 / 47
History coverage3d
Avg bet$120
Trades / day41.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 47 Trades
no open positions (26 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 17 $31 −$31 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 17 $236 −$225 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 17 $212 −$200 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 17 $210 +$162 +77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 17 $122 −$115 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 17 $157 +$133 +85%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 17 $105 −$102 -97%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $51 −$50 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 17 $525 −$525 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 17 $27 −$25 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 17 $310 +$271 +88%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 17 $105 −$100 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 17 $107 +$5 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 17 $104 −$100 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 17 $26 −$25 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 17 $27 −$25 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 17 $34 −$7 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 17 $53 −$50 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 17 $122 +$82 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 17 $104 +$112 +108%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 17 $210 −$200 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 17 $107 −$59 -56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 17 $129 −$125 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 17 $104 +$111 +106%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 17 $44 −$42 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 17 $158 −$150 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 17 $104 +$105 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 17 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 17 $132 −$132 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 17 $122 −$115 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 17 $212 −$200 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 17 $115 −$10 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 17 $53 −$50 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 17 $135 +$298 +220%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 17 $26 +$63 +240%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 17 $61 −$5 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 17 $131 +$223 +171%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 17 $114 +$183 +161%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 17 $15 −$4 -29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 17 $31 −$31 -100%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $51 −$50 -97%
Will Justin Gaethje win by KO or TKO? Jun 15 $47 +$242 +510%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $51 −$5 -9%
Will Alex Pereira win by KO or TKO? Jun 15 $350 −$344 -98%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $360 −$14 -4%
Will Ilia Topuria win by KO or TKO? Jun 15 $56 −$55 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET SELL Down 1¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Down 33¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Down 2¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Down 29¢ $105 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Down 32¢ $105 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Down 8¢ $106 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Down 21¢ $106 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $102 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Down 1¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Down 3¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Down 9¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Down 15¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Down 26¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Up 1¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET SELL Up 16¢ $71 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 5¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET SELL Up 14¢ $29 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Up 11¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET SELL Down 90¢ $190 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET SELL Down 1¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Down 31¢ $105 1h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 16¢ $51 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Up 10¢ $106 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET BUY Up 26¢ $105 14h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 133 history records