Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T22:33:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7A 0x7a89…f3e4 world 28 markets active 1h ago coverage 470d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$8 (+2%) realized +$8 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate44%12W / 15L
Drawdown19%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$39now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$7
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 68% +$9
other 15% $0
politics 6% $0
sports 6% −$1
crypto 3% $0
culture 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-12.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 10 -8.3% -17.0% 40% 0% -6.9%
≤90d 10 -8.3% -17.0% 40% 0% -6.9%
all 27 -3.4% -12.6% 44% 0% -7.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.6% 0% -7.9%
10% -21.0% 0% -16.7%
15% -28.6% 0% -24.7%
20% -35.6% 0% -32.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 63% · top 2 76% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
92% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×2.37 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×4.06 per $1 lost it wins $4.06
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

470d coverage
Net worth$39
Realized+$8
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses12 / 15
Open positions1
Markets (closed)27 / 28
History coverage470d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown19%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 27 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? No 96¢ 96¢ $39 $39 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 26 $36 $0 +1%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 26 $39 $0 -0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 25 $64 +$6 +10%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? May 24 $16 $0 +2%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 22 $29 $0 -1%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 21 $2 −$1 -32%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? May 21 $30 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 21 $33 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 20 $29 +$1 +4%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 19 $3 $0 +0%
Will Avatar 3 be the top grossing movie of 2025? Dec 19 $10 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150K in June? Dec 09 $1 $0 +1%
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win Super Bowl 2026? Jun 28 $12 $0 -0%
Will the Denver Broncos win Super Bowl 2026? May 20 $12 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win Super Bowl 2026? May 18 $12 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $98000 and $100000 on May 16? May 17 $12 $0 +1%
Will the Golden State Warriors win the Western Conference? May 16 $11 +$1 +10%
Will Mario Grech be the next pope? May 09 $1 $0 +1%
Will Trump meet with MrBeast in his first 100 days? Apr 16 $12 $0 +0%
Will the Minnesota Wild win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Apr 04 $12 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Bob Menendez in his first 100 days? Mar 25 $12 $0 +0%
Will Atalanta win the Serie A? Mar 24 $12 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 500-524 times March 14-21? Mar 22 $12 $0 +2%
Will Tennessee win the 2025 NCAA Tournament? Mar 19 $11 $0 +0%
La Salle vs. George Mason Mar 05 $5 −$1 -26%
Will Mitch McConnell applaud during Trump's address to Congress? Mar 04 $8 $0 -0%
Marquette vs. UConn Mar 04 $14 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $39 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? SELL No 75¢ $36 22d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? BUY No 74¢ $36 22d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 98¢ $39 22d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 98¢ $39 22d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? SELL No 86¢ $12 23d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? SELL No 85¢ $6 23d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? SELL No 85¢ $18 23d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? BUY No 83¢ $5 23d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? BUY No 83¢ $30 23d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 44¢ $13 24d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 44¢ $4 24d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 43¢ $16 24d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? SELL No 78¢ $34 24d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? BUY No 66¢ $29 24d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? SELL No 94¢ $18 26d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? SELL No 94¢ $11 26d
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? BUY No 94¢ $29 26d
Iran leadership change by May 31? SELL Yes $1 27d
Iran leadership change by May 31? SELL Yes $0 27d
Iran leadership change by May 31? BUY Yes $1 27d
Iran leadership change by May 31? BUY Yes $1 27d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? SELL No 76¢ $30 27d
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? BUY No 76¢ $30 27d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 76¢ $1 27d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 76¢ $33 27d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? BUY No 76¢ $33 27d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL Yes 48¢ $5 28d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL Yes 48¢ $6 28d
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? SELL Yes 48¢ $20 28d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $39.16 · official $39.16 (match) · 75 history records