trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | no closed markets | |||||
| ≤30d | 10 | -8.3% | -17.0% | 40% | 0% | -6.9% |
| ≤90d | 10 | -8.3% | -17.0% | 40% | 0% | -6.9% |
| all | 27 | -3.4% | -12.6% | 44% | 0% | -7.9% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -12.6% | 0% | -7.9% |
| 10% | -21.0% | 0% | -16.7% |
| 15% | -28.6% | 0% | -24.7% |
| 20% | -35.6% | 0% | -32.1% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | No | 96¢ | 96¢ | $39 | $39 | +$0 (+0%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? | May 26 | $36 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? | May 26 | $39 | $0 | -0% |
| US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? | May 25 | $64 | +$6 | +10% |
| Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? | May 24 | $16 | $0 | +2% |
| Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? | May 22 | $29 | $0 | -1% |
| Iran leadership change by May 31? | May 21 | $2 | −$1 | -32% |
| Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? | May 21 | $30 | $0 | +0% |
| Israel closes its airspace by May 31? | May 21 | $33 | $0 | +0% |
| Iran closes its airspace by May 31? | May 20 | $29 | +$1 | +4% |
| Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? | May 19 | $3 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Avatar 3 be the top grossing movie of 2025? | Dec 19 | $10 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Bitcoin reach $150K in June? | Dec 09 | $1 | $0 | +1% |
| Will the Cincinnati Bengals win Super Bowl 2026? | Jun 28 | $12 | $0 | -0% |
| Will the Denver Broncos win Super Bowl 2026? | May 20 | $12 | $0 | -0% |
| Will the Los Angeles Chargers win Super Bowl 2026? | May 18 | $12 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be between $98000 and $100000 on May 16? | May 17 | $12 | $0 | +1% |
| Will the Golden State Warriors win the Western Conference? | May 16 | $11 | +$1 | +10% |
| Will Mario Grech be the next pope? | May 09 | $1 | $0 | +1% |
| Will Trump meet with MrBeast in his first 100 days? | Apr 16 | $12 | $0 | +0% |
| Will the Minnesota Wild win the 2025 Stanley Cup? | Apr 04 | $12 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Trump pardon Bob Menendez in his first 100 days? | Mar 25 | $12 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Atalanta win the Serie A? | Mar 24 | $12 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Elon tweet 500-524 times March 14-21? | Mar 22 | $12 | $0 | +2% |
| Will Tennessee win the 2025 NCAA Tournament? | Mar 19 | $11 | $0 | +0% |
| La Salle vs. George Mason | Mar 05 | $5 | −$1 | -26% |
| Will Mitch McConnell applaud during Trump's address to Congress? | Mar 04 | $8 | $0 | -0% |
| Marquette vs. UConn | Mar 04 | $14 | $0 | +0% |