Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T09:32:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
7A 0x7a8a…5aa1 world 14 markets active 1h ago coverage 76d
TRAPdo not copy world specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$308 (-7%) realized −$308 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -21% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate36%5W / 9L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$303per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$2
14 days−$2
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 50% +$2
sports 41% −$313
other 9% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-28.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 2 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 14 -20.6% -28.2% 36% 0% -16.2%
all 14 -20.6% -28.2% 36% 0% -16.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -28.2% 0% -16.2%
10% -35.1% 0% -24.2%
15% -41.3% 0% -31.5%
20% -47.1% 0% -38.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 32% · top 2 64% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -21% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -14% → late -28% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$69 · ×0.09 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.09 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

76d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$308
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses5 / 9
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions0
Markets (closed)14 / 14
History coverage76d
Avg bet$303
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 14 Trades
no open positions (3 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will a country leave BRICS in 2026? Jun 23 $380 −$2 -0%
Will Russia capture Sofiivka by June 30? Jun 23 $377 $0 +0%
Spread: Al Ettifaq Saudi Club (-2.5) May 14 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Russia capture all of Prymorske by May 31, 2026? May 14 $19 $0 +0%
Spread: Tōkyō Verdy (-2.5) May 13 $11 −$11 -100%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 13 $37 +$2 +5%
Spread: RCD Espanyol de Barcelona (-2.5) May 11 $492 +$10 +2%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by May 31, 2026? May 09 $492 −$1 -0%
Spread: Sønderjyske Fodbold (-2.5) May 09 $482 +$10 +2%
Will Italy send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2026? May 08 $481 $0 +0%
Spread: FC Fredericia (-2.5) Apr 24 $422 +$9 +2%
Will India send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 202 Apr 23 $421 $0 +0%
Spread: Vanraure Hachinohe FC (-2.5) Apr 08 $305 −$305 -100%
EU/NATO country announces peacekeeping force in Ukraine by June 30? Apr 08 $292 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will a country leave BRICS in 2026? SELL No 90¢ $378 36m
Will a country leave BRICS in 2026? BUY No 90¢ $380 1h
Will Russia capture Sofiivka by June 30? SELL No 93¢ $377 2h
Will Russia capture Sofiivka by June 30? BUY No 93¢ $377 3h
Spread: Al Ettifaq Saudi Club (-2.5) BUY Al Ettifaq Saudi Club $13 40d
Spread: Al Ettifaq Saudi Club (-2.5) BUY Al Ettifaq Saudi Club $12 40d
Will Russia capture all of Prymorske by May 31, 2026? SELL Yes $9 40d
Will Russia capture all of Prymorske by May 31, 2026? SELL Yes $10 40d
Will Russia capture all of Prymorske by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes $9 40d
Will Russia capture all of Prymorske by May 31, 2026? BUY Yes $10 40d
Spread: Tōkyō Verdy (-2.5) BUY Tōkyō Verdy $6 41d
Spread: Tōkyō Verdy (-2.5) BUY Tōkyō Verdy $6 41d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes $0 41d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes $0 41d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes $0 41d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes $19 41d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes $19 41d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes $18 41d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes $18 41d
Spread: RCD Espanyol de Barcelona (-2.5) BUY Sevilla FC 98¢ $492 45d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by May 31, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $394 45d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by May 31, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $97 45d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by May 31, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $395 45d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by May 31, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $97 45d
Spread: Sønderjyske Fodbold (-2.5) BUY Viborg FF 98¢ $482 46d
Will Italy send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $481 46d
Will Italy send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by May 31, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $481 46d
Spread: FC Fredericia (-2.5) BUY Randers FC 98¢ $92 61d
Spread: FC Fredericia (-2.5) BUY Randers FC 98¢ $330 61d
Will India send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by April 30, 202 SELL No 96¢ $422 61d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 37 history records