Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T03:49:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
7A 0x7a8a…0acd other 147 markets active 1h ago coverage 567d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$5,059 (-16%) realized −$5,001 · open −$58
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate41%58W / 84L
Whale WR29%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$220per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit41%portable
Net worth$17now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$26
7 days+$26
14 days+$26
30 days+$26
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 42% −$4,981
crypto 41% +$925
sports 11% −$522
economics 4% −$566
politics 2% +$87
world 0% +$67
finance 0% −$100
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-26.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +35.7% +22.8% 67% 67% +9.3%
≤30d 3 +35.7% +22.8% 67% 67% +9.3%
≤90d 3 +35.7% +22.8% 67% 67% +9.3%
all 142 -18.3% -26.1% 41% 39% -23.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -26.1% 39% -23.7%
10% -33.2% 37% -31.0%
15% -39.6% 35% -37.6%
20% -45.6% 29% -43.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +21% too few recent
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -18% · $-wt -16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 29% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -14% → late -23% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$196 vs −$195 · ×1.0 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.69 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

567d coverage
Net worth$17
Realized−$5,001
Unrealized−$58
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses58 / 84
Whale WR (big bets)29%
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions3
Markets (closed)142 / 147
History coverage567d
Avg bet$220
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit41%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 142 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Colombia 47¢ 31¢ $25 $16 −$9 (-34%)
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Draw at halftime? Yes 44¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 Under 52¢ 0¢ $25 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ghana to score first vs. Panama? Jun 18 $51 +$47 +93%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 18 $25 +$29 +114%
Ghana vs. Panama: Panama O/U 3.5 Corners Jun 17 $51 −$50 -99%
Will Manchester United finish in the top 4 of the EPL 2025–26 standing Dec 06 $100 −$44 -44%
Will Man City win the 2025–26 Champions League? Dec 06 $100 −$20 -20%
Will Manchester City win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Dec 06 $100 −$25 -25%
Will Bologna FC 1909 win on 2025-12-04? Dec 05 $50 +$38 +75%
Will Manchester City win on 2025-12-02? Dec 03 $25 +$17 +70%
Will Manchester United win on 2025-11-24? Dec 01 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Arsenal win on 2025-11-30? Dec 01 $300 −$300 -100%
Will Aston Villa win on 2025-11-23? Nov 24 $396 +$373 +94%
Will Switzerland win on 2025-11-18? Nov 23 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Denmark win on 2025-11-18? Nov 23 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Wales win on 2025-11-18? Nov 23 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Liverpool win on 2025-11-22? Nov 23 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Nottingham Forest win on 2025-11-22? Nov 23 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Manchester City win on 2025-11-22? Nov 23 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Chelsea win on 2025-11-22? Nov 22 $50 +$26 +52%
No change in Fed interest rates after December 2025 meeting? Nov 20 $200 −$200 -100%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting? Nov 20 $300 −$55 -18%
Will Northern Ireland win on 2025-11-17? Nov 18 $50 +$36 +72%
Will Italy win on 2025-11-16? Nov 17 $25 +$20 +82%
Will Ukraine vs. Iceland end in a draw? Nov 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Republic of Ireland win on 2025-11-16? Nov 17 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Belgium win on 2025-11-15? Nov 17 $100 −$100 -100%
Will England win on 2025-11-16? Nov 17 $50 +$20 +41%
Will Brazil win on 2025-11-15? Nov 16 $25 +$11 +43%
Will Switzerland win on 2025-11-15? Nov 16 $25 +$16 +64%
Will Netherlands win on 2025-11-14? Nov 15 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Finland win on 2025-11-14? Nov 15 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Slovakia win on 2025-11-14? Nov 15 $25 +$27 +108%
Ethereum all time high by December 31? Nov 14 $500 +$31 +6%
Will Portugal win on 2025-11-13? Nov 14 $50 −$50 -100%
Will CA Mineiro win on 2025-11-12? Nov 14 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Hungary win on 2025-11-13? Nov 14 $50 +$27 +54%
Will Iceland win on 2025-11-13? Nov 14 $50 +$28 +56%
Will the government shutdown end November 12? Nov 13 $25 +$75 +300%
Will Russia win on 2025-11-12? Nov 13 $25 −$25 -100%
Will the Government shutdown end November 16 or later? Nov 10 $500 +$112 +22%
Will Barcelona win on 2025-11-09? Nov 10 $25 +$20 +79%
Will Real Madrid win on 2025-11-09? Nov 10 $37 −$37 -100%
Will Manchester City win on 2025-11-09? Nov 10 $50 +$48 +96%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2025-11-05? Nov 09 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Tottenham win on 2025-11-08? Nov 09 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Everton win on 2025-11-08? Nov 09 $45 +$12 +26%
Will West Ham win on 2025-11-08? Nov 09 $51 +$49 +97%
LoL: T1 vs KT Rolster (BO5) Nov 09 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2025-11-05? Nov 07 $25 +$11 +43%
Will Spain win the UEFA Nations League? Jun 09 $1,124 −$1,124 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $115k in May? Jun 01 $500 −$500 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 52¢ $25 1h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 44¢ $25 1h
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) BUY Colombia 47¢ $25 2h
Ghana vs. Panama: Panama O/U 3.5 Corners BUY Over 64¢ $51 4h
Ghana to score first vs. Panama? BUY Yes 51¢ $51 4h
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Under 46¢ $25 4h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY 56¢ $51 19h
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 AND Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? AND BUY 32¢ $26 20h
Will Manchester United finish in the top 4 of the EPL 2025–26 standing SELL Yes 17¢ $56 193d
Will Man City win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL Yes 8¢ $80 193d
Will Manchester City win the 2025–26 English Premier League? SELL Yes 24¢ $75 193d
Will Bologna FC 1909 win on 2025-12-04? BUY Yes 57¢ $50 195d
Will Manchester City win on 2025-12-02? BUY Yes 59¢ $25 197d
Will Arsenal win on 2025-11-30? BUY Yes 39¢ $300 199d
Will Manchester United finish in the top 4 of the EPL 2025–26 standing BUY Yes 31¢ $100 205d
Will Manchester United win on 2025-11-24? BUY Yes 56¢ $50 205d
Will Aston Villa win on 2025-11-23? BUY No 22¢ $96 206d
Will Aston Villa win on 2025-11-23? BUY Yes 39¢ $300 206d
Will Nottingham Forest win on 2025-11-22? BUY No 34¢ $25 207d
No change in Fed interest rates after December 2025 meeting? BUY Yes 64¢ $200 209d
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting? SELL Yes 33¢ $115 209d
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting? SELL Yes 37¢ $129 209d
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting? BUY Yes 31¢ $100 210d
Will Manchester City win on 2025-11-22? BUY Yes 50¢ $50 210d
Will Liverpool win on 2025-11-22? BUY Yes 70¢ $50 210d
Will Chelsea win on 2025-11-22? BUY Yes 66¢ $50 210d
Will Wales win on 2025-11-18? BUY No 42¢ $25 211d
Will Denmark win on 2025-11-18? BUY Yes 44¢ $25 211d
Will Switzerland win on 2025-11-18? BUY Yes 52¢ $20 211d
Will Northern Ireland win on 2025-11-17? BUY Yes 58¢ $50 212d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $16.54 · official $18.94 · 331 history records