Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T15:27:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
7A 0x7a8c…db09 crypto 4 markets active 2h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$5 (+1%) realized +$5 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate75%3W / 1L
Drawdown56%max
Avg bet$178per market
Trades / day8.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +0.3% -9.2% 75% 0% -9.0%
≤30d 4 +0.3% -9.2% 75% 0% -9.0%
≤90d 4 +0.3% -9.2% 75% 0% -9.0%
all 4 +0.3% -9.2% 75% 0% -9.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.2% 0% -9.0%
10% -17.9% 0% -17.7%
15% -25.8% 0% -25.6%
20% -33.1% 0% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 38% · top 2 73% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$6 · ×0.6 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.8 per $1 lost it wins $1.8
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$5
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)75%
Wins / losses3 / 1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)4 / 4
History coverage1d
Avg bet$178
Trades / day8.0
Drawdown56%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 4 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 29 $109 −$6 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 29 $301 +$3 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 29 $200 +$4 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 29 $101 +$4 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET SELL Down 85¢ $104 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $109 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET SELL Down 96¢ $304 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $301 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET SELL Up 100¢ $204 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $200 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET SELL Down 97¢ $104 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Down 93¢ $101 14h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 8 history records