Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T02:59:57+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
7A 0x7a8e…1967 other 23 markets active 2h ago coverage 2d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable Fresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$175 (+15%) realized +$275 · open −$100
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate64%14W / 8L
Drawdown20%max
Avg bet$50per market
Trades / day27.9pace
Fees−$14est.
Kalshi-fit48%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 50% +$24
sports 50% +$91
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-8.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 +0.9% -8.7% 64% 50% +9.2%
≤30d 22 +0.9% -8.7% 64% 50% +9.2%
≤90d 22 +0.9% -8.7% 64% 50% +9.2%
all 22 +0.9% -8.7% 64% 50% +9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover27.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -8.7% 50% +9.2%
10% ← realistic here -17.5% 36% -1.2%
15% -25.4% 32% -10.8%
20% -32.7% 23% -19.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 42% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +21% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
21% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +21% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -22% → late +24% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$22 vs −$12 · ×1.91 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.34 per $1 lost it wins $3.34
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$275
Unrealized−$100
Win rate (resolved)64%
Wins / losses14 / 8
Est. fees paid−$14
Open positions1
Markets (closed)22 / 23
History coverage2d
Avg bet$50
Trades / day27.9
Drawdown20%
Kalshi-fit48%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 22 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Yes 46¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Czechia vs. Mexico: O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $152 +$26 +17%
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $199 +$25 +13%
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 3 Brazil? Jun 25 $10 +$18 +172%
Will Morocco vs. Haiti end in a draw? Jun 24 $15 −$15 -97%
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $51 −$28 -55%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $122 +$10 +8%
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $101 +$93 +91%
Exact Score: Bosnia-Herzegovina 3 - 1 Qatar? Jun 24 $71 +$34 +48%
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 1 Canada? Jun 24 $51 +$34 +67%
Exact Score: Bosnia-Herzegovina 2 - 1 Qatar? Jun 24 $36 −$1 -3%
Exact Score: Bosnia-Herzegovina 2 - 2 Qatar? Jun 24 $5 $0 +7%
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? Jun 24 $11 −$9 -81%
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 0 Canada? Jun 24 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $101 +$38 +38%
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 0 Canada? Jun 24 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $27 +$14 +51%
Will Colombia vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 24 $4 −$4 -92%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $20 +$7 +35%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 4.5 Jun 23 $12 +$1 +9%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 3.5 Jun 23 $6 +$1 +14%
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 23 $5 −$5 -97%
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $9 +$7 +81%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Czechia vs. Mexico: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 67¢ $53 1h
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 70¢ $62 1h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 46¢ $102 1h
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 70¢ $62 1h
Czechia vs. Mexico: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 64¢ $48 1h
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 61¢ $100 1h
Czechia vs. Mexico: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 54¢ $77 1h
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 57¢ $98 2h
Czechia vs. Mexico: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 50¢ $152 2h
South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 57¢ $101 2h
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 3 Brazil? SELL Yes 100¢ $28 2h
Will Morocco vs. Haiti end in a draw? BUY Yes 12¢ $10 3h
Will Morocco vs. Haiti end in a draw? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 3h
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 3 Brazil? BUY Yes 36¢ $10 3h
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 22¢ $23 4h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 61¢ $132 4h
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 99¢ $194 4h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 55¢ $122 4h
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 51¢ $101 4h
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 47¢ $51 5h
Exact Score: Bosnia-Herzegovina 3 - 1 Qatar? SELL Yes 100¢ $88 5h
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 1 Canada? SELL Yes 100¢ $85 5h
Exact Score: Bosnia-Herzegovina 3 - 1 Qatar? BUY Yes 57¢ $51 6h
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 1 Canada? BUY Yes 59¢ $51 6h
Exact Score: Bosnia-Herzegovina 3 - 1 Qatar? SELL Yes 22¢ $18 6h
Exact Score: Bosnia-Herzegovina 2 - 1 Qatar? SELL Yes 37¢ $29 6h
Exact Score: Bosnia-Herzegovina 2 - 1 Qatar? BUY Yes 40¢ $20 6h
Exact Score: Bosnia-Herzegovina 2 - 2 Qatar? SELL Yes 12¢ $5 6h
Exact Score: Bosnia-Herzegovina 2 - 1 Qatar? BUY Yes 33¢ $10 6h
Exact Score: Bosnia-Herzegovina 3 - 1 Qatar? BUY Yes 24¢ $20 6h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.11 · official $0.11 (match) · 54 history records