Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T15:35:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7A 0x7a90…d625 world 36 markets active 1h ago coverage 456d
TRAPdo not copy world specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$14 (-1%) realized −$14 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate38%13W / 21L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$28per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$39now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$5
14 days−$5
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 66% −$4
other 21% +$3
politics 7% −$13
tech 3% $0
culture 2% $0
sports 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-14.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 -1.3% -10.7% 8% 0% -10.9%
≤30d 21 -0.1% -9.6% 29% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 21 -0.1% -9.6% 29% 0% -9.6%
all 34 -5.6% -14.6% 38% 0% -10.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.6% 0% -10.9%
10% -22.8% 0% -19.4%
15% -30.3% 0% -27.2%
20% -37.1% 0% -34.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 53% · top 2 74% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
92% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -11% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$2 · ×0.31 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.31 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

456d coverage
Net worth$39
Realized−$14
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses13 / 21
Open positions2
Markets (closed)34 / 36
History coverage456d
Avg bet$28
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 34 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? No 86¢ 86¢ $38 $38 +$0 (+0%)
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Yes 32¢ 32¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 24 $13 $0 +0%
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? Jun 24 $33 $0 +0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 23 $22 $0 +0%
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? Jun 23 $40 −$1 -4%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? Jun 21 $45 $0 -0%
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? Jun 21 $22 −$1 -7%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 20 $38 −$1 -2%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 20 $38 $0 -1%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? Jun 19 $20 $0 +0%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 18 $3 $0 +5%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 18 $48 −$1 -2%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $3 $0 -5%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 02 $31 +$3 +10%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 02 $12 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 02 $45 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 02 $129 −$1 -1%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 01 $46 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 30 $80 +$1 +2%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? May 30 $40 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 29 $40 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 28 $40 +$1 +2%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? Dec 11 $1 $0 +1%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the Democratic Primary for Mayor of New York Jun 29 $14 −$14 -100%
Will Slovenia win Eurovision 2025? May 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will the Liberal–National Coalition win the most seats in the next Aus May 07 $1 $0 +5%
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on April 30? Apr 18 $14 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Roger Ver in his first 100 days? Apr 16 $16 $0 +1%
Will Trump pardon 1,000-1,249 Jan 6 protestors in his first 100 days? Apr 14 $16 $0 +0%
Will Alibaba have the top AI model on June 30? Apr 13 $16 $0 -0%
Will Thunderbolts be the top grossing movie of 2025? Apr 12 $16 $0 +0%
Will Estonia win Eurovision 2025? Apr 11 $16 $0 -0%
Will Trump pardon Rudy Giuliani in his first 100 days? Apr 10 $16 $0 +0%
Will Paris Saint-Germain win the UEFA Champions League? Apr 07 $16 $0 +0%
Will Sławomir Mentzen be the next President of Poland? Mar 29 $11 $0 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY No 86¢ $38 1h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 15¢ $5 6h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 15¢ $7 6h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 15¢ $1 7h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 15¢ $12 7h
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $20 12h
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $13 12h
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $27 14h
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $6 14h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 32¢ $19 16h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 32¢ $18 16h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY Yes 32¢ $2 19h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY Yes 32¢ $36 19h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 14¢ $5 26h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 27h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 14¢ $3 27h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $22 30h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $22 31h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL No 81¢ $39 39h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY No 84¢ $39 42h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY No 84¢ $1 42h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $45 2d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $45 2d
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? SELL Yes 14¢ $11 3d
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? SELL Yes 14¢ $5 3d
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? SELL Yes 14¢ $5 3d
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? BUY Yes 15¢ $22 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 55¢ $37 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 56¢ $24 3d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 56¢ $10 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $39.14 · official $39.14 (match) · 109 history records