Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T20:51:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
7A 0x7a96…bb2f sports 8 markets active 1h ago coverage 2d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable
Total PnL +$38 (+28%) realized +$40 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +46% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +27% what you keep after slip
Net edge+27%after slip
Net WR100%break-even
Win rate100%6W / 0L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day5.3pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$39now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 54% +$27
other 46% +$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +100%
net ROI/market (all)+32.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +46.4% +32.5% 100% 100% +25.4%
≤30d 6 +46.4% +32.5% 100% 100% +25.4%
≤90d 6 +46.4% +32.5% 100% 100% +25.4%
all 6 +46.4% +32.5% 100% 100% +25.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +32.5% 100% +25.4%
10% +19.8% 83% +13.4%
15% +8.2% 83% +2.4%
20% -2.4% 50% -7.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 47% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +39% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +46% · $-wt +39% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs — no data
Profit factor
— no data
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$39
Realized+$40
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses6 / 0
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)6 / 8
History coverage2d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day5.3
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 6 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Yes 67¢ 64¢ $39 $37 −$2 (-5%)
San Diego Padres vs. Texas Rangers Texas Rangers 73¢ 72¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Spain O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $33 +$7 +20%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $24 +$11 +46%
UFC Fight Night: Andre Fili vs. Vinicius Oliveira (Featherweight, Main Jun 21 $17 +$7 +40%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $11 +$7 +60%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $7 +$4 +57%
HSBC Championships: Tommy Paul vs Ugo Humbert Jun 20 $5 +$3 +57%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
San Diego Padres vs. Texas Rangers BUY Texas Rangers 73¢ $2 39m
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 67¢ $40 1h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: Spain O/U 1.5 BUY Over 83¢ $33 14h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $24 19h
UFC Fight Night: Andre Fili vs. Vinicius Oliveira (Featherweight, Main BUY Vinicius Oliveira 71¢ $17 22h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 62¢ $11 25h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 63¢ $7 27h
HSBC Championships: Tommy Paul vs Ugo Humbert BUY Tommy Paul 63¢ $5 36h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $38.71 · official $38.68 (match) · 14 history records