Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T19:48:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7A 0x7a9b…155e crypto 12 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL +$0 (+0%) realized −$8 · open +$8
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR56%break-even
Win rate56%5W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day19.0pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$25now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 94% −$12
sports 6% −$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +56%
net ROI/market (all)-18.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -9.4% -18.0% 56% 56% -27.7%
≤30d 9 -9.4% -18.0% 56% 56% -27.7%
≤90d 9 -9.4% -18.0% 56% 56% -27.7%
all 9 -9.4% -18.0% 56% 56% -27.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover19.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.0% 56% -27.7%
10% -25.8% 33% -34.6%
15% -33.0% 33% -40.9%
20% -39.6% 33% -46.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 59% · top 2 76% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -20% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -20% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$15 · ×0.4 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.5 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$25
Realized−$8
Unrealized+$8
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses5 / 4
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions3
Markets (closed)9 / 12
History coverage1d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day19.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 9 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Down 5¢ 52¢ $2 $21 +$19 (+930%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Down 61¢ 50¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-19%)
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Leviatán Esports - Map 4 Winner Paper Rex 57¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 21 $5 +$4 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 21 $5 +$3 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 21 $6 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 21 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 21 $26 −$19 -74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 21 $26 −$11 -44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 21 $26 +$18 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 21 $25 +$5 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 21 $5 −$5 -92%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $24.67 · official $24.27 (match) · 20 history records