Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T15:43:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7A 0x7a9c…aba3 weather 259 markets active 1h ago coverage 302d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$6 (-0%) realized −$6 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate43%111W / 148L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day1.7pace
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 49% −$9
other 25% +$2
crypto 13% $0
politics 8% $0
tech 2% $0
finance 1% $0
world 1% $0
culture 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.0% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 49 -0.0% -9.6% 24% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 248 -0.4% -9.9% 40% 0% -9.8%
all 259 -0.4% -9.9% 43% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.9% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.5% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.4% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.6% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 25% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.47 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.35 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

302d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$6
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses111 / 148
Open positions0
Markets (closed)259 / 259
History coverage302d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day1.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 259 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ted Cruz post 140-159 posts from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Jun 26 $30 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 9? Jun 10 $14 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $70,000 and $72,000 on June 9? Jun 09 $16 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C or below on June 8? Jun 08 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 18°C or below on June 8? Jun 08 $11 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C or higher on June 6? Jun 06 $14 $0 -0%
Will CZ post 200+ posts from May 29 to June 5, 2026? Jun 05 $7 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 4? Jun 04 $15 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 13°C on June 3? Jun 03 $6 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 54-55°F on Ju Jun 03 $20 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 1 to June 3, 2026? Jun 03 $11 $0 -0%
Will Cho Eun-hee win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Jun 03 $8 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 23°C on June 2? Jun 02 $4 $0 +0%
Will Jim Carlin be the Republican nominee for Senate in Iowa? Jun 02 $19 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 29°C or higher on June 2? Jun 02 $11 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 12°C or below on June 3? Jun 02 $15 $0 -0%
Will Adrian Mapp be the Democratic Nominee for NJ-12? Jun 02 $8 $0 -0%
Will Éder Militão be included in Brazil's official 2026 World Cup squa Jun 01 $19 $0 -0%
Will Betty Yee advance from the 2026 California Governor primary elect Jun 01 $12 $0 -0%
Will Katie Bansil be the Democratic nominee for NJ-06? Jun 01 $14 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on June 1? Jun 01 $20 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 76-77°F on June 1? Jun 01 $6 $0 -0%
Will Nate Jacobs die in Euphoria: Season 3? May 31 $21 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Manila be 36°C on May 31? May 31 $10 $0 -0%
Will the Bitcoin Volatility Index dip to 25 by May 31? May 31 $29 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 28°C on May 31? May 31 $18 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from May 28 to May 30, 2026? May 30 $6 $0 +0%
Netanyahu out by May 31? May 30 $10 $0 -0%
Will the Ornn B200 Index hit $3.50 (LOW) by May 31, 2026? May 30 $18 $0 -0%
Will Amazon have the second-best Coding AI model at the end of May 202 May 30 $20 $0 -0%
Will the price of Solana be between $60 and $70 on May 30? May 30 $6 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk’s net worth be between $610b and $620b on May 31? May 30 $9 $0 -0%
Will Russia enter Krasnoiarske by May 31? May 30 $9 $0 -0%
Will Ant Middleton summit Everest in between 2 and 3 days? May 30 $28 $0 -0%
Will Peter Milobar win the 2026 Conservative Party of British Columbia May 30 $17 $0 -0%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 23°C on May 29? May 29 $17 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on May 29? May 29 $10 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 23°C or higher on May 29? May 29 $10 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $80,000 and $82,000 on May 30? May 29 $13 $0 -0%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 28, 2026? May 29 $8 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on May 28? May 28 $8 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 29? May 28 $14 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 20°C on May 28? May 28 $9 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 28? May 28 $14 $0 -0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on May 28? May 28 $18 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 80-81°F on May 28? May 28 $20 $0 +0%
Will "SWIM - BTS" be the #1 song on US Spotify this week? May 27 $7 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 19°C on May 28? May 27 $18 $0 -0%
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 20°C on May 27? May 27 $13 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 36°C or higher on May 27? May 27 $19 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ted Cruz post 140-159 posts from June 19 to June 26, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $29 1h
Will Ted Cruz post 140-159 posts from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $30 2h
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on June 9? BUY No 100¢ $14 17d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $70,000 and $72,000 on June 9? BUY No 100¢ $16 17d
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 23°C or below on June 8? BUY No 100¢ $10 19d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 18°C or below on June 8? BUY No 100¢ $11 19d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C or higher on June 6? SELL No 100¢ $13 20d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C or higher on June 6? BUY No 100¢ $14 20d
Will CZ post 200+ posts from May 29 to June 5, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $7 21d
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 4? BUY No 100¢ $15 23d
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 13°C on June 3? SELL Yes 100¢ $6 23d
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 54-55°F on Ju SELL No 100¢ $1 23d
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 54-55°F on Ju SELL No 100¢ $9 23d
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 54-55°F on Ju SELL No 100¢ $9 23d
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 13°C on June 3? SELL Yes 100¢ $0 23d
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 13°C on June 3? BUY Yes 100¢ $6 23d
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 54-55°F on Ju BUY No 100¢ $20 23d
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 1 to June 3, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $11 23d
Will Cho Eun-hee win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election SELL No 100¢ $8 23d
Will Jim Carlin be the Republican nominee for Senate in Iowa? SELL No 100¢ $19 23d
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 29°C or higher on June 2? SELL No 100¢ $10 23d
Will Cho Eun-hee win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election BUY No 100¢ $8 23d
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 12°C or below on June 3? SELL No 100¢ $15 24d
Will Adrian Mapp be the Democratic Nominee for NJ-12? SELL No 100¢ $8 24d
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 1 to June 3, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $11 24d
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 12°C or below on June 3? BUY No 100¢ $15 24d
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 23°C on June 2? BUY No 100¢ $4 24d
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 29°C or higher on June 2? BUY No 100¢ $11 24d
Will Éder Militão be included in Brazil's official 2026 World Cup squa SELL No 100¢ $18 24d
Will Adrian Mapp be the Democratic Nominee for NJ-12? BUY No 100¢ $8 24d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 585 history records