Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T20:26:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
7A 0x7aa0…34db sports 6 markets active 2h ago coverage 4d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge
Total PnL +$80 (+13%) realized +$65 · open +$15
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +88% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +70% what you keep after slip
Net edge+70%after slip
Net WR100%break-even
Win rate100%5W / 0L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$105per market
Trades / day2.2pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$237now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% +$228
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +100%
net ROI/market (all)+69.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +87.6% +69.8% 100% 100% +37.8%
≤30d 5 +87.6% +69.8% 100% 100% +37.8%
≤90d 5 +87.6% +69.8% 100% 100% +37.8%
all 5 +87.6% +69.8% 100% 100% +37.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +69.8% 100% +37.8%
10% +53.5% 100% +24.6%
15% +38.7% 60% +12.6%
20% +25.1% 60% +1.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 51% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +52% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +88% · $-wt +52% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$43 vs — no data
Profit factor
— no data
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$237
Realized+$65
Unrealized+$15
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses5 / 0
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions1
Markets (closed)5 / 6
History coverage4d
Avg bet$105
Trades / day2.2
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 5 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Vitality 69¢ 74¢ $223 $237 +$15 (+7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 19 $170 +$55 +32%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 18 $127 +$43 +34%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 18 $72 +$55 +76%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $26 +$46 +172%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 15 $12 +$15 +123%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $237.18 · official $237.18 (match) · 11 history records