Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T09:27:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
7A 0x7aa1…e126 sports 29 markets active 2d ago coverage 341d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$47,663 (+19%) realized +$47,751 · open −$88
Gross ROI / mkt -18% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -33% what you keep after slip
Net edge-33%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate37%10W / 17L
Whale WR57%big bets
Drawdown57%max
Avg bet$8,543per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$3,330est.
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$209now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$29,520
7 days−$48,289
14 days−$18,620
30 days+$32,152
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 88% +$51,523
other 11% −$4,641
crypto 1% −$1,440
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-26.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 -72.6% -75.2% 17% 17% -70.8%
≤30d 17 -1.6% -11.0% 41% 41% +3.9%
≤90d 27 -18.2% -26.0% 37% 37% +7.2%
all 27 -18.2% -26.0% 37% 37% +7.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~10%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -26.0% 37% +7.2%
10% ← realistic here -33.1% 37% -3.0%
15% -39.6% 37% -12.4%
20% -45.5% 37% -21.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 43% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +18% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -18% · $-wt +18% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 57% (≥$13,089) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -7% → late -29% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$14,460 vs −$5,828 · ×2.48 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.46 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

341d coverage
Net worth$209
Realized+$47,751
Unrealized−$88
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses10 / 17
Whale WR (big bets)57%
Est. fees paid−$3,330
Open positions2
Markets (closed)27 / 29
History coverage341d
Avg bet$8,543
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown57%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 27 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $200 $125 −$75 (-38%)
Matt Olson: Home Runs O/U 0.5 Over 26¢ 22¢ $97 $84 −$13 (-13%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 14 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 20 $19,482 −$19,120 -98%
Germany leading at halftime? Jun 20 $10,527 −$10,400 -99%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $2,037 −$2,001 -98%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $13,966 +$9,034 +65%
Yordan Alvarez: Home Runs O/U 0.5 Jun 19 $816 −$800 -98%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $25,333 −$25,002 -99%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 14 $9,832 −$9,690 -99%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1,462 −$1,440 -98%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $13,089 +$22,911 +175%
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox Jun 13 $4,062 −$667 -16%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $50,000 +$39,606 +79%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 08 $21,624 −$21,051 -97%
UFC Fight Night: Belal Muhammad vs. Gabriel Bonfim (Welterweight, Main Jun 07 $4,140 −$4,080 -99%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 06 $5,100 +$10,034 +197%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $10,189 +$16,810 +165%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 31 $12,246 +$15,466 +126%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers May 26 $15,207 +$12,542 +82%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons May 18 $348 −$340 -98%
Pistons vs. Cavaliers May 11 $938 −$922 -98%
Knicks vs. 76ers May 10 $9,124 +$7,525 +82%
UFC 328: Ozzy Diaz vs. Ateba Gautier (Middleweight, Prelims) May 10 $94 −$91 -97%
Atlanta Braves vs. Los Angeles Dodgers May 09 $520 −$512 -98%
Pistons vs. Magic May 01 $850 −$835 -98%
Knicks vs. Hawks May 01 $9,113 +$6,388 +70%
Knicks vs. Hawks Apr 26 $5,197 +$4,285 +82%
Will Byron Buxton win the 2025 MLB Home Run Derby? Apr 26 $919 −$919 -100%
Lighter Airdrop on December 29? Apr 26 $1,200 −$1,200 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies BUY New York Mets 37¢ $776 36h
New York Mets vs. Philadelphia Phillies BUY New York Mets 37¢ $18,706 36h
Germany leading at halftime? BUY Yes 52¢ $1,518 38h
Germany leading at halftime? BUY Yes 52¢ $62 38h
Germany leading at halftime? BUY Yes 52¢ $8,946 38h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 39¢ $2,037 2d
Yordan Alvarez: Home Runs O/U 0.5 BUY Over 32¢ $816 2d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 60¢ $13,966 2d
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 54¢ $464 4d
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 54¢ $137 4d
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 54¢ $3 4d
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 54¢ $2 4d
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 54¢ $59 4d
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 54¢ $23 4d
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 54¢ $2 4d
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 54¢ $235 4d
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 54¢ $75 4d
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 54¢ $49 4d
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 54¢ $24,282 4d
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Alex Pereira 51¢ $9,832 7d
Matt Olson: Home Runs O/U 0.5 SELL Over $1 7d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 48¢ $1,462 8d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $206 8d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 28¢ $1,275 8d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 28¢ $128 8d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 37¢ $5,843 8d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 37¢ $5,843 8d
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox SELL Atlanta Braves 45¢ $3,394 8d
Matt Olson: Home Runs O/U 0.5 BUY Over 26¢ $133 10d
Atlanta Braves vs. Chicago White Sox BUY Atlanta Braves 52¢ $4,062 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $209.33 · official $209.33 (match) · 79 history records