Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T09:47:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7A 0x7aa3…16ab other 274 markets active 0h ago coverage 142d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$85 (-0%) realized −$85 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate4%12W / 262L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$210per market
Trades / day10.0pace
Fees−$10est.
Kalshi-fit63%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$7
7 days−$21
14 days−$32
30 days−$44
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 45% −$42
sports 22% −$28
politics 10% −$8
crypto 7% −$7
economics 6% −$9
culture 5% −$6
world 4% $0
tech 1% +$1
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 33 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 77 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 181 -0.2% -9.7% 2% 0% -9.7%
all 274 -0.2% -9.7% 4% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover10.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 34% · top 2 63% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×1.69 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.08 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

142d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$85
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)4%
Wins / losses12 / 262
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions0
Markets (closed)274 / 274
History coverage142d
Avg bet$210
Trades / day10.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit63%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 274 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 21 $364 −$1 -0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 21 $401 −$1 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 21 $989 −$1 -0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Jun 21 $364 −$1 -0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $252 $0 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $604 −$1 -0%
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 20 $270 −$1 -0%
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 19 $106 $0 -0%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $596 −$1 -0%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 19 $138 −$1 -0%
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 19 $233 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 19 $149 $0 -0%
Will New York Red Bulls win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 18 $276 −$1 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 18 $703 −$1 -0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $823 −$1 -0%
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2026 World Series? Jun 17 $409 −$1 -0%
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 17 $134 $0 -0%
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? Jun 17 $425 −$1 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $343 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 16 $392 −$1 -0%
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 16 $184 $0 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 16 $306 −$1 -0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 16 $370 −$1 -0%
Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 16 $55 $0 -0%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 15 $709 −$1 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $852 −$1 -0%
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 15 $112 $0 -0%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Jun 15 $373 −$1 -0%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $371 −$1 -0%
Will Orlando City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 15 $270 $0 -0%
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 14 $331 $0 -0%
Will the Green Bay Packers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 14 $138 $0 -0%
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 14 $291 $0 -0%
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 14 $248 −$1 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? Jun 14 $406 −$1 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $351 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? Jun 13 $468 −$1 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 12 $456 −$1 -0%
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? Jun 12 $389 −$1 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 12 $474 $0 -0%
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $691 −$1 -0%
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 11 $224 $0 -0%
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 11 $206 $0 -0%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $463 −$1 -0%
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 10 $58 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? Jun 10 $177 $0 -0%
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 08 $294 −$1 -0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? Jun 08 $348 −$2 -1%
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 08 $59 $0 -0%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 07 $60 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $52 29m
Will the Miami Dolphins win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $52 1h
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $52 3h
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $52 5h
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $52 6h
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $52 7h
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? SELL No 94¢ $52 9h
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? BUY No 94¢ $52 10h
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $52 12h
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $52 14h
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $52 15h
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $52 17h
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $52 22h
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $52 24h
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $52 27h
Will Xi Jinping win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $53 29h
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $53 31h
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $53 33h
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 98¢ $53 34h
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 98¢ $53 35h
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $53 37h
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $53 39h
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 98¢ $53 40h
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 98¢ $53 42h
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $53 46h
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $53 2d
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $53 2d
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $53 2d
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $53 2d
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $53 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1491 history records