Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T23:42:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7A 0x7aa4…4d69 weather 546 markets active 1h ago coverage 167d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$96 (-1%) realized −$95 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR14%break-even
Win rate73%393W / 149L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day4.1pace
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$182now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$6
14 days+$12
30 days+$38
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 95% +$12
world 3% −$31
other 1% −$59
politics 0% +$27
crypto 0% −$3
economics 0% −$7
culture 0% −$16
tech 0% −$15
sports 0% −$11
finance 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +14%
net ROI/market (all)-18.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 +1.3% -8.4% 94% 0% -8.8%
≤30d 48 +1.7% -8.0% 98% 0% -8.1%
≤90d 290 +0.2% -9.3% 87% 8% -9.5%
all 542 -10.1% -18.7% 73% 14% -10.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.7% 14% -10.3%
10% -26.5% 8% -18.9%
15% -33.6% 6% -26.8%
20% -40.1% 4% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
81% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -21% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$4 · ×0.31 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.83 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

167d coverage
Net worth$182
Realized−$95
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)73%
Wins / losses393 / 149
Open positions4
Markets (closed)542 / 546
History coverage167d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day4.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 542 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 27°C on June 18? No 100¢ 100¢ $70 $70 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on June 18? No 99¢ 99¢ $70 $70 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 33°C on June 18? No 98¢ 98¢ $41 $41 +$0 (+0%)
Mojtaba Khamenei leaves Iran by June 30, 2026? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-30%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 121 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 15? Jun 15 $40 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 20°C on June 15? Jun 15 $40 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C on June 15? Jun 15 $70 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on June 14? Jun 15 $70 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 20°C on June 14? Jun 14 $8 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 19°C on June 14? Jun 14 $40 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 23°C on June 14? Jun 14 $60 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C or below on June 13? Jun 13 $40 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C on June 13? Jun 13 $60 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 24°C on June 13? Jun 13 $9 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on June 13? Jun 13 $60 +$2 +3%
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 12? Jun 12 $35 +$2 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 22°C on June 12? Jun 12 $40 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 16°C on June 10? Jun 11 $46 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 12°C on June 10? Jun 11 $60 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 14°C on June 11? Jun 11 $71 −$3 -4%
Will the highest temperature in London be 15°C on June 9? Jun 10 $70 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 20°C on June 8? Jun 09 $45 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 25°C on June 8? Jun 09 $60 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on June 7? Jun 08 $25 $0 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 19°C on June 7? Jun 08 $66 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 21°C on June 7? Jun 08 $66 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 18°C on June 4? Jun 06 $25 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on June 4? Jun 06 $60 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C on June 4? Jun 06 $63 +$2 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C on June 2? Jun 03 $10 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 19°C on June 2? Jun 03 $29 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 21°C on June 2? Jun 03 $60 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on June 2? Jun 03 $70 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 21°C on May 31? Jun 01 $35 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 25°C on May 31? Jun 01 $65 +$2 +3%
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on May 31? Jun 01 $65 +$2 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 31°C on May 29? May 30 $32 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 25°C on May 29? May 30 $65 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in London be 24°C on May 29? May 30 $65 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 30°C on May 27? May 28 $60 +$2 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 30°C on May 26? May 26 $30 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in London be 31°C on May 26? May 26 $40 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 29°C on May 26? May 26 $70 +$2 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 27°C on May 25? May 25 $35 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on May 24? May 24 $60 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 30°C on May 24? May 24 $60 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 27°C on May 24? May 24 $30 +$1 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 25°C on May 23? May 23 $28 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 28°C on May 23? May 23 $60 +$1 +1%
Will the highest temperature in London be 27°C on May 23? May 23 $60 +$4 +7%
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on May 20? May 22 $55 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 16°C on May 20? May 22 $60 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 13°C on May 17? May 18 $45 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 14°C on May 17? May 18 $45 +$2 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 33°C on June 18? BUY No 98¢ $41 1h
Will the highest temperature in London be 25°C on June 18? BUY No 99¢ $70 1h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 27°C on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $70 1h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 20°C on June 15? BUY No 99¢ $40 2d
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 15? BUY No 98¢ $40 2d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C on June 15? BUY No 99¢ $70 2d
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 19°C on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $40 3d
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 20°C on June 14? BUY No 96¢ $8 4d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 23°C on June 14? BUY No 99¢ $60 4d
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on June 14? BUY No 100¢ $70 4d
Mojtaba Khamenei leaves Iran by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 4d
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 24°C on June 13? BUY No 98¢ $9 4d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on June 13? BUY No 97¢ $60 4d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 22°C on June 12? BUY No 98¢ $40 5d
Will the highest temperature in London be 19°C or below on June 13? BUY No 99¢ $40 5d
Will the highest temperature in London be 20°C on June 12? BUY No 95¢ $35 5d
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C on June 13? BUY No 99¢ $60 5d
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 14°C on June 11? SELL No 96¢ $69 6d
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 14°C on June 11? BUY No 99¢ $71 7d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 16°C on June 10? BUY No 99¢ $46 8d
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 12°C on June 10? BUY No 100¢ $60 8d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 20°C on June 8? BUY No 98¢ $45 9d
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 25°C on June 8? BUY No 100¢ $60 9d
Will the highest temperature in London be 15°C on June 9? BUY No 99¢ $70 9d
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 21°C on June 7? BUY No 100¢ $66 11d
Will the highest temperature in London be 18°C on June 7? BUY No 98¢ $25 11d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 19°C on June 7? BUY No 100¢ $66 11d
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C on June 4? BUY No 98¢ $63 14d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 18°C on June 4? BUY No 97¢ $25 14d
Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on June 4? BUY No 98¢ $60 14d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $182.18 · official $182.18 (match) · 1039 history records