Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T03:01:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7A 0x7aa5…6e68 crypto 22 markets active 1h ago coverage 8d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$322 (-31%) realized −$322 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +22% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +6% what you keep after slip
Net edge+6%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%11W / 11L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$48per market
Trades / day4.4pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$129now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 8d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 50% +$188
other 41% −$337
sports 9% −$70
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)+10.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 -0.7% -10.2% 60% 60% -18.3%
≤30d 22 +21.9% +10.3% 50% 50% -28.5%
≤90d 22 +21.9% +10.3% 50% 50% -28.5%
all 22 +21.9% +10.3% 50% 50% -28.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +10.3% 50% -28.5%
10% -0.2% 41% -35.4%
15% -9.9% 41% -41.6%
20% -18.7% 23% -47.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 46% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -21% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +22% · $-wt -21% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +32% → late +11% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$29 vs −$49 · ×0.59 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.59 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$129
Realized−$322
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses11 / 11
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions0
Markets (closed)22 / 22
History coverage8d
Avg bet$48
Trades / day4.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 22 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 28 $76 +$56 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 28 $62 +$28 +46%
Will Croatia vs. Ghana end in a draw? Jun 28 $47 −$47 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET Jun 28 $49 +$24 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jun 28 $57 +$21 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 28 $35 +$7 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 27 $33 +$33 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 27 $12 −$12 -100%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $105 −$63 -60%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $99 −$44 -45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 27 $29 +$30 +102%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 27 $20 +$9 +42%
Will Panama vs. England end in a draw? Jun 27 $19 +$4 +21%
Scotland vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 27 $27 −$27 -100%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 27 $92 −$92 -100%
Exact Score: United States 2 - 0 Australia? Jun 19 $138 −$138 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 19 $23 −$23 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 19 $25 +$13 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jun 19 $10 +$90 +940%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Jun 19 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 19 $28 −$28 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 19 $39 −$39 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET BUY Up 57¢ $76 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET SELL Up 76¢ $90 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $62 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET SELL Up 95¢ $73 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:15PM-9:30PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $49 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET SELL Up 68¢ $78 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET BUY Up 36¢ $19 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $38 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET SELL Up 31¢ $43 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET BUY Up 23¢ $35 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET SELL Up 98¢ $67 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $33 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET BUY Down 7¢ $12 4h
Will Croatia vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY Yes 68¢ $47 4h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 10¢ $23 4h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 10¢ $24 4h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 26¢ $34 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET SELL Up 68¢ $59 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET BUY Up 31¢ $29 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET SELL Down 35¢ $29 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 22¢ $20 4h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? SELL No 18¢ $20 4h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 19¢ $23 4h
Will Panama vs. England end in a draw? SELL Yes 23¢ $23 4h
Will Panama vs. England end in a draw? BUY Yes 18¢ $19 5h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 4¢ $19 5h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 55¢ $76 6h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 16¢ $81 6h
Scotland vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 56¢ $27 8d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 22¢ $92 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $129.07 · official $129.07 (match) · 48 history records