Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T22:38:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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7A 0x7aaa…7f7f crypto 363 markets active 1h ago coverage 74d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
Total PnL −$145 (-4%) realized −$275 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate54%193W / 166L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$10per market
Trades / day11.8pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$39now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$8
7 days−$3
14 days−$8
30 days−$36
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 95% −$225
other 4% −$76
sports 1% +$25
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-23.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 +42.3% +28.7% 60% 53% -11.9%
≤30d 76 -8.4% -17.1% 51% 46% -14.2%
≤90d 359 -15.9% -23.9% 54% 43% -16.6%
all 359 -15.9% -23.9% 54% 43% -16.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -23.9% 43% -16.6%
10% -31.2% 25% -24.6%
15% -37.8% 20% -31.9%
20% -43.9% 14% -38.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 8% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
19% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -16% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -20% → late -12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$5 · ×0.58 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.67 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

74d coverage
Net worth$39
Realized−$275
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses193 / 166
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions4
Markets (closed)359 / 363
History coverage74d
Avg bet$10
Trades / day11.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 359 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Yes 61¢ 60¢ $25 $25 −$0 (-1%)
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Yes 30¢ 28¢ $8 $7 −$1 (-8%)
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Yes 34¢ 34¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-1%)
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+2%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Down 55¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Down 10¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Down 49¢ 0¢ $14 $0 −$14 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Up 53¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Netherlands 25¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Up 61¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Down 48¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 5, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Down 18¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Down 53¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Down 45¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Down 74¢ 0¢ $13 $0 −$13 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Down 56¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Up 23¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Up 31¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Down 29¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Down 17¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Up 55¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Down 48¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Up 68¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Up 10¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Up 56¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $2 $0 +14%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $6 +$20 +306%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 +$5 +44%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $4 +$4 +108%
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Jun 14 $15 −$15 -98%
Spread: Australia (-1.5) Jun 14 $3 +$16 +534%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5 +$7 +131%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $21 −$16 -75%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $3 −$3 -94%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $10 −$9 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 12 $1 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 12 $10 +$5 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 07 $1 −$1 -94%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 6? Jun 06 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 06 $4 +$3 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 06 $3 $0 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 06 $2 +$2 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 06 $13 −$13 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 06 $2 +$2 +74%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 06 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 06 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 06 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 06 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 06 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 06 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 06 $2 +$2 +98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 06 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jun 06 $2 +$1 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 06 $2 +$2 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 05 $5 +$2 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 05 $2 +$1 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 05 $38 +$4 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 05 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 05 $10 +$5 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 03 $4 −$4 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 03 $9 −$5 -57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 03 $16 −$7 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 03 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 03 $10 +$8 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 03 $4 −$4 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 03 $10 +$4 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 03 $4 −$4 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 03 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 03 $4 +$2 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 03 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 03 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 03 $4 +$2 +50%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 3¢ $3 33m
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 61¢ $26 33m
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? BUY Yes 34¢ $4 46m
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 5¢ $2 46m
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? SELL Yes 86¢ $26 47m
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 1h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 19¢ $6 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 74¢ $15 1h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 30¢ $8 13h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI SELL T1 65¢ $9 13h
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) BUY Netherlands 25¢ $15 16h
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY T1 29¢ $4 16h
Spread: Australia (-1.5) SELL Australia 85¢ $20 16h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 48¢ $10 17h
Spread: Australia (-1.5) BUY Australia 13¢ $3 17h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 45¢ $12 17h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 18¢ $5 22h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 6¢ $5 22h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 2¢ $3 23h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 21¢ $21 23h
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 6¢ $10 42h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET BUY Up 17¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET SELL Up 35¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $1 2d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 21¢ $16 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET SELL Down 84¢ $15 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $10 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET SELL Up 29¢ $3 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET BUY Up 22¢ $2 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET BUY Down 10¢ $1 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $39.12 · official $39.12 (match) · 903 history records