Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T13:28:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
7A 0x7aad…5049 crypto 59 markets active 2h ago coverage 263d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$587 (-2%) realized −$585 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate98%56W / 1L
Whale WR93%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$427per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$925now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$7
14 days+$20
30 days+$24
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 59% −$777
economics 13% +$110
finance 10% +$23
politics 7% +$5
other 4% +$39
tech 4% +$4
world 2% +$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +1.4% -8.3% 100% 0% -8.9%
≤30d 7 +1.5% -8.2% 100% 0% -8.5%
≤90d 13 +0.9% -8.7% 100% 0% -9.1%
all 57 -0.2% -9.7% 98% 2% -11.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 2% -11.7%
10% -18.4% 0% -20.2%
15% -26.3% 0% -27.9%
20% -33.5% 0% -34.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 37% · top 2 46% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
95% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 93% (≥$637) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +1% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$838 · ×0.01 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.3 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

263d coverage
Net worth$925
Realized−$585
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)98%
Wins / losses56 / 1
Whale WR (big bets)93%
Open positions2
Markets (closed)57 / 59
History coverage263d
Avg bet$427
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 57 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting? No 98¢ 98¢ $782 $781 −$0 (-0%)
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? Yes 87¢ 86¢ $145 $144 −$2 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June? Jun 26 $276 +$1 +0%
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,700 by end of June? Jun 26 $617 +$2 +0%
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,300 (LOW) in June? Jun 25 $62 +$2 +4%
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,000 (LOW) in June? Jun 23 $144 +$2 +1%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 Jun 21 $271 +$6 +2%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June? Jun 14 $609 +$8 +1%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meet Jun 02 $203 +$4 +2%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in May? May 23 $1,080 +$2 +0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 me May 06 $1,079 +$1 +0%
Trump out as President by April 30? Apr 26 $1,076 +$3 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in April? Apr 20 $1,072 +$4 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on April 4? Apr 07 $1,071 +$1 +0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $60 by end of March? Apr 03 $1,069 +$2 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in March? Mar 28 $1,068 +$1 +0%
Trump out as President by March 31? Mar 25 $637 +$1 +0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of March? Mar 25 $422 +$8 +2%
Will China invade Taiwan by March 31, 2026? Mar 20 $629 +$7 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $112,000 on October 21? Mar 18 $838 −$838 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in February? Mar 03 $628 +$2 +0%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) close above $130 end of February? Feb 28 $627 +$1 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $125,000 in February? Feb 25 $471 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in February? Feb 25 $155 $0 +0%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 mee Feb 14 $534 +$93 +17%
No change in Bank of Japan's interest rates after January 2026 meeting Jan 22 $528 +$5 +1%
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$1B one day after launch? Dec 30 $128 +$13 +10%
Maduro out in 2025? Dec 28 $364 +$24 +6%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after December 2025 meeting? Dec 15 $120 +$8 +6%
Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 by December 31, 2025? Dec 14 $30 +$3 +10%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2025? Dec 14 $320 +$11 +4%
Will Bitcoin reach $140,000 by December 31, 2025? Dec 05 $118 +$2 +2%
Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 in November? Nov 21 $176 +$8 +4%
Will Bitcoin reach $135,000 in November? Nov 21 $250 +$4 +2%
Will Bitcoin reach $140,000 in November? Nov 15 $10 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $145,000 in November? Nov 15 $10 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in November? Nov 15 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $4,300 on November 6? Nov 06 $175 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $112,000 and $114,000 on November Nov 04 $173 +$2 +1%
Will the price of XRP be above $2.10 on November 2? Nov 03 $173 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150k in October? Nov 01 $172 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $102,000 on October 21? Oct 20 $836 +$1 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $4,600 October 13-19? Oct 20 $49 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $4,400 October 13-19? Oct 20 $250 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $4,800 October 13-19? Oct 20 $537 +$1 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $4,500 October 13-19? Oct 18 $250 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,600 on October 17? Oct 17 $827 +$8 +1%
Will the price of Solana be less than $170 on October 16? Oct 16 $826 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $170 on October 15? Oct 16 $824 +$2 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $4,900 on October 14? Oct 15 $823 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $5,200 on October 13? Oct 14 $822 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $4,700 and $4,800 on October 12? Oct 13 $212 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 20 BUY No 98¢ $782 1h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June? SELL No 100¢ $277 2d
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,700 by end of June? SELL No 100¢ $619 2d
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,300 (LOW) in June? SELL No 100¢ $64 3d
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of July 2026? BUY Yes 87¢ $146 4d
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,000 (LOW) in June? SELL No 100¢ $59 4d
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,000 (LOW) in June? SELL No 100¢ $15 4d
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,000 (LOW) in June? SELL No 100¢ $2 4d
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,000 (LOW) in June? SELL No 100¢ $30 4d
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,000 (LOW) in June? SELL No 100¢ $19 4d
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,000 (LOW) in June? SELL No 100¢ $21 4d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June? BUY No 100¢ $276 6d
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 SELL No 99¢ $81 7d
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 SELL No 99¢ $30 7d
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 SELL No 99¢ $165 7d
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $5,700 by end of June? BUY No 100¢ $617 10d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June? SELL No 100¢ $602 13d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June? SELL No 100¢ $15 13d
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,000 (LOW) in June? BUY No 99¢ $144 25d
Will S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,300 (LOW) in June? BUY No 96¢ $62 25d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meet SELL Yes 93¢ $206 25d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $200 by end of June? BUY No 98¢ $609 36d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in May? SELL No 100¢ $609 36d
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 BUY No 97¢ $271 37d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in May? SELL No 100¢ $270 38d
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meet BUY Yes 91¢ $203 46d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in May? SELL No 100¢ $203 49d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $1,080 53d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the April 2026 me BUY No 100¢ $1,079 63d
Trump out as President by April 30? SELL No 100¢ $1,079 63d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $924.79 · official $924.79 (match) · 194 history records