Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T08:07:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7A 0x7ab3…b236 other 273 markets active 5h ago coverage 159d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$170 (-1%) realized −$170 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate9%25W / 247L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$55per market
Trades / day6.1pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$12now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$5
14 days−$9
30 days−$17
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 29% −$152
politics 26% −$12
sports 21% −$10
crypto 8% −$4
economics 5% +$1
culture 5% −$3
tech 3% −$1
world 2% −$2
finance 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 24 -0.7% -10.1% 8% 0% -10.0%
≤30d 72 -0.8% -10.2% 7% 0% -10.0%
≤90d 157 -0.5% -10.0% 10% 0% -9.8%
all 272 -0.8% -10.2% 9% 0% -10.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.2% 0% -10.6%
10% -18.8% 0% -19.2%
15% -26.6% 0% -27.0%
20% -33.8% 0% -34.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 38% · top 2 54% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.33 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.04 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

159d coverage
Net worth$12
Realized−$170
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)9%
Wins / losses25 / 247
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)272 / 273
History coverage159d
Avg bet$55
Trades / day6.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 272 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Golden State Warriors win the 2027 NBA Finals? No 98¢ 98¢ $12 $12 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 17 $57 $0 -0%
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 16 $8 $0 -1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 16 $11 $0 -2%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? Jun 16 $17 $0 -2%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 16 $189 $0 -0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 15 $159 $0 -0%
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 15 $11 $0 -1%
Will Yulia Navalnaya win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 15 $39 −$1 -2%
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 14 $25 $0 -1%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June Jun 14 $36 −$1 -2%
Will Bitcoin dip to $15,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 14 $62 $0 -0%
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 14 $29 −$1 -2%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of June? Jun 13 $18 $0 -2%
Will the San Francisco 49ers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 13 $8 $0 -0%
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 13 $34 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $190,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 13 $34 $0 -0%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.6T? Jun 12 $17 +$1 +7%
Will Croatia reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 12 $7 $0 -1%
Will Sweden reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $13 $0 -4%
Will a player representing Portugal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 Jun 12 $9 $0 +2%
Will a player representing Argentina be the top goalscorer at the 2026 Jun 11 $23 −$1 -3%
Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 11 $159 $0 -0%
Will Pope Leo XIV win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 10 $17 $0 -1%
Will Norway score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 10 $15 $0 -0%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 10 $16 $0 -2%
Will Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 10 $45 $0 -0%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom Jun 07 $104 −$1 -0%
Will McLaren be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 06 $12 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Lions win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 06 $65 $0 -0%
Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 06 $58 $0 -0%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 06 $26 $0 -0%
Will The Odyssey be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 05 $17 $0 -1%
Will Bitcoin reach $170,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 04 $18 $0 -2%
Will Bitcoin reach $180,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 04 $22 $0 -1%
Will Ro Khanna be the 2028 Democratic Vice-Presidential nominee? Jun 03 $11 −$1 -10%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 Jun 03 $13 $0 -1%
Will USA reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Jun 03 $16 $0 -1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 02 $20 $0 -1%
Will the Philadelphia Eagles win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 02 $20 $0 -2%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 01 $20 $0 -0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 01 $33 $0 -1%
Will François Hollande win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 01 $84 $0 -0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 01 $122 −$1 -0%
Will Chad Bianco win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 31 $64 $0 -0%
Will Bruno Retailleau win the 2027 French presidential election? May 30 $43 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 29 $152 $0 -0%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet May 29 $169 −$1 -1%
Will Rafael Jodar win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 29 $40 $0 -0%
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 28 $40 $0 -0%
Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election? May 28 $133 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Golden State Warriors win the 2027 NBA Finals? BUY No 98¢ $12 4h
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 94¢ $14 5h
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 94¢ $14 11h
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 96¢ $8 11h
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 97¢ $8 15h
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 93¢ $11 16h
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $11 21h
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? SELL No 90¢ $17 22h
Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $17 30h
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 98¢ $7 30h
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 98¢ $7 36h
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 97¢ $15 37h
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 97¢ $15 43h
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL No 93¢ $11 43h
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 93¢ $11 47h
Will Yulia Navalnaya win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 92¢ $18 2d
Will Yulia Navalnaya win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 93¢ $18 2d
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 97¢ $16 2d
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 97¢ $16 2d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June SELL Yes 94¢ $18 2d
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June BUY Yes 97¢ $19 2d
Will Bitcoin dip to $15,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $14 2d
Will Bitcoin dip to $15,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $14 3d
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 93¢ $16 3d
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 96¢ $17 3d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of June? SELL No 93¢ $18 3d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $110 by end of June? BUY No 94¢ $18 3d
Will the San Francisco 49ers win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 96¢ $8 3d
Will the San Francisco 49ers win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 96¢ $8 3d
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $10 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $12.26 · official $12.26 (match) · 1085 history records