Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T15:21:39+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7A 0x7ab4…a62d crypto 331 markets active 5h ago coverage 240d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL +$1,551 (+7%) realized +$1,273 · open +$278
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate53%167W / 151L
Drawdown79%max
Avg bet$67per market
Trades / day2.0pace
Fees−$12est.
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$1,960now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$110
7 days+$252
14 days+$208
30 days+$130
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 44% +$3,750
other 27% −$600
crypto 19% −$562
politics 4% −$743
sports 4% −$239
finance 1% −$139
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-17.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 +29.8% +17.4% 71% 64% +26.3%
≤30d 26 +4.0% -5.9% 58% 54% +0.5%
≤90d 254 -20.2% -27.8% 50% 48% -28.2%
all 318 -8.9% -17.6% 53% 50% -4.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.0 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.6% 50% -4.2%
10% -25.4% 43% -13.4%
15% -32.6% 31% -21.8%
20% -39.2% 23% -29.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -21% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt +6% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +5% → late -22% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$43 vs −$40 · ×1.08 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.2 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

240d coverage
Net worth$1,960
Realized+$1,273
Unrealized+$278
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses167 / 151
Est. fees paid−$12
Open positions13
Markets (closed)318 / 331
History coverage240d
Avg bet$67
Trades / day2.0
Drawdown79%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 13 History 318 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Russia capture Lyman by June 30, 2026? No 70¢ 93¢ $1,066 $1,420 +$354 (+33%)
Opensea FDV above $100M one day after launch? Yes 61¢ 43¢ $170 $120 −$50 (-29%)
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Yes 68¢ 66¢ $100 $98 −$2 (-2%)
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Yes 55¢ 52¢ $80 $76 −$4 (-5%)
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Yes 63¢ 64¢ $61 $61 +$0 (+0%)
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? Yes 63¢ 62¢ $40 $39 −$1 (-2%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 2¢ $20 $37 +$18 (+88%)
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Yes 80¢ 80¢ $25 $25 +$0 (+1%)
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Yes 56¢ 60¢ $20 $22 +$2 (+8%)
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Yes 65¢ 64¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Yes 48¢ 46¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-3%)
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $50 $16 −$34 (-68%)
Will Trump and Putin meet next in United States? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $10 $6 −$4 (-43%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 18 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $54 +$22 +40%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $41 +$50 +124%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 17 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $132 +$49 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7AM ET Jun 15 $18 +$7 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 15 $16 +$5 +29%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $37 −$36 -99%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $165 +$87 +53%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $25 +$1 +4%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $61 +$62 +101%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $10 +$25 +250%
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 12 $20 −$20 -98%
Ethereal FDV above $50M one day after launch? Jun 12 $23 −$2 -10%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $25 +$13 +50%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $28 +$32 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 08 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 05 $20 −$20 -98%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 05 $27 −$27 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 3, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 03 $21 +$11 +52%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 01 $101 −$100 -99%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? Jun 01 $125 +$27 +22%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 29 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? May 29 $40 −$40 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET May 29 $10 −$10 -97%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 21 $50 +$23 +46%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 19 $40 +$61 +153%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET May 19 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET May 11 $5 −$5 -97%
Timberwolves vs. Spurs May 07 $101 +$31 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET May 05 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET May 05 $10 +$13 +123%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET May 05 $10 +$7 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET May 04 $10 −$8 -76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET May 04 $20 +$9 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET May 04 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET May 04 $10 +$3 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 5AM ET May 01 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (HIGH) $5,000 in April? May 01 $25 +$19 +75%
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$2B one day after launch? May 01 $190 +$133 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Apr 30 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Apr 30 $15 +$10 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Apr 28 $82 −$82 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Apr 27 $10 −$10 -100%
Pistons vs. Magic Apr 26 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Apr 26 $20 +$16 +82%
Spurs vs. Trail Blazers Apr 25 $50 +$35 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Apr 24 $15 −$15 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Apr 24 $200 −$200 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Apr 24 $110 −$110 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Apr 24 $10 −$10 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 65¢ $20 4h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 64¢ $25 4h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 71¢ $54 29h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 55¢ $15 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $10 30h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 72¢ $76 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $18 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 76¢ $16 3d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 55¢ $15 3d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 51¢ $37 3d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 63¢ $40 3d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 80¢ $25 3d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 48¢ $20 3d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 55¢ $15 3d
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 73¢ $35 3d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 63¢ $36 5d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 56¢ $20 5d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 55¢ $35 5d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 44¢ $41 5d
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $51 5d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 94¢ $26 5d
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) BUY Uruguay 41¢ $20 6d
Ethereal FDV above $50M one day after launch? SELL Yes 44¢ $21 6d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 62¢ $89 6d
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $10 6d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 46¢ $28 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 77¢ $10 10d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 66¢ $20 10d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 1¢ $21 10d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 21¢ $20 13d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,960.33 · official $1,960.33 (match) · 980 history records