Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T01:40:30+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
7A 0x7ab5…e123 world 346 markets active 1h ago coverage 164d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
Total PnL +$16,985 (+8%) realized +$17,132 · open +$33
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR15%break-even
Win rate77%225W / 67L
Whale WR50%big bets
Drawdown2%max
Avg bet$631per market
Trades / day18.6pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$252now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$6
7 days+$12
14 days+$47
30 days+$73
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 80% +$16,816
other 18% +$10
world 1% +$90
economics 0% +$210
crypto 0% +$36
finance 0% −$1
sports 0% +$3
tech 0% +$1
culture 0% +$1
weather 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +15%
net ROI/market (all)-5.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 +11.7% +1.0% 70% 35% +1.1%
≤30d 70 +8.9% -1.5% 74% 27% +4.4%
≤90d 204 +3.7% -6.1% 72% 18% -2.4%
all 292 +4.8% -5.2% 77% 15% -2.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover18.6 tr/day
realistic slip~11%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -5.2% 15% -2.4%
10% ← realistic here -14.3% 10% -11.7%
15% -22.5% 6% -20.3%
20% -30.1% 5% -28.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 93% · top 2 95% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
79% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 50% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early +4% → late +5% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
3.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$80 vs −$14 · ×5.9 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×19.82 per $1 lost it wins $19.82
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

164d coverage
Net worth$252
Realized+$17,132
Unrealized+$33
Win rate (resolved)77%
Wins / losses225 / 67
Whale WR (big bets)50%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions54
Markets (closed)292 / 346
History coverage164d
Avg bet$631
Trades / day18.6
Drawdown2%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 54 History 292 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Yes 46¢ 81¢ $35 $62 +$27 (+77%)
Iran leadership change by June 30? No 96¢ 98¢ $22 $22 +$0 (+2%)
Will Rebecca Shepherd win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? No 98¢ 99¢ $14 $14 +$0 (+1%)
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026? No 72¢ 92¢ $9 $11 +$2 (+28%)
Netanyahu out by June 30? No 98¢ 99¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
World Cup: Goalkeeper to Score? No 96¢ 95¢ $7 $7 −$0 (-1%)
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Yes 32¢ 12¢ $19 $7 −$12 (-64%)
Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by June 30? No 78¢ 92¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+18%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Yes 86¢ 94¢ $5 $6 +$0 (+9%)
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? No 85¢ 99¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+17%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of June? No 96¢ 99¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+3%)
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? No 96¢ 98¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+2%)
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30? No 98¢ 99¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Will Valve add Cache to the Map Pool by June 30, 2026? No 97¢ 96¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-0%)
QatarEnergy announces/resumes LNG production in Qatar by April 30? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+0%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Yes 20¢ 26¢ $4 $5 +$1 (+34%)
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in June? No 98¢ 100¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+2%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Yes 59¢ 64¢ $3 $4 +$0 (+8%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-0%)
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? No 79¢ 88¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+12%)
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 100¢ 99¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-0%)
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? No 93¢ 99¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+6%)
Iran leadership change by December 31? Yes 31¢ 16¢ $5 $2 −$2 (-47%)
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.0T by June 30? No 90¢ 96¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+7%)
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? No 96¢ 99¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? Jun 15 $1 +$3 +317%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 14 $2 +$1 +31%
World Cup: First Penalty Made or Missed? Jun 13 $2 +$1 +23%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 12? Jun 13 $7 +$1 +10%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $4T? Jun 12 $4 $0 +1%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.6T? Jun 12 $4 $0 +2%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.8T? Jun 12 $7 $0 +2%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? Jun 12 $5 +$3 +57%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? Jun 12 $4 $0 -8%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? Jun 12 $3 $0 -17%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -97%
Israel closes its airspace by June 10? Jun 11 $8 +$1 +7%
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? Jun 10 $1 $0 +3%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 09 $4 $0 -8%
Will Claude 5 be released by September 30, 2026? Jun 09 $6 +$3 +51%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $7 +$5 +78%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by July 31, 2026? Jun 09 $5 +$1 +23%
Will A Nation That Has Never Won the World Cup Win in 2026? Jun 09 $1 $0 -5%
GPT-5.6 released by June 8, 2026? Jun 09 $3 $0 +6%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 09 $1 $0 +11%
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase June 2-8? Jun 08 $14 $0 +3%
Will Claude 5 be released by June 30, 2026? Jun 08 $1 −$1 -68%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 15, 2026? Jun 08 $17 −$4 -25%
Will GamerLegion win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 07 $2 $0 +1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 06 $1 −$1 -85%
GPT-5.6 released by June 5, 2026? Jun 06 $4 $0 +4%
Will Lars Boje Mathiesen be the next prime minister of Denmark after t Jun 04 $5 $0 +0%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 04 $71 +$21 +30%
Will President Trump attend the NBA Finals? Jun 03 $1 $0 -19%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? Jun 02 $10 +$1 +14%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by December 31, 2026? Jun 01 $21 +$6 +27%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026? Jun 01 $36 +$5 +14%
Jerome Powell out from Fed Board by May 30? Jun 01 $1 $0 +3%
GTA VI released before June 2026? Jun 01 $2 +$2 +106%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? Jun 01 $13 $0 +2%
Will María Corina Machado enter Venezuela by May 31? Jun 01 $6 $0 +7%
Gaza flotilla enters Israeli waters by May 31? Jun 01 $3 $0 +3%
Will Lexi Howard die in Euphoria: Season 3? Jun 01 $2 $0 +4%
Will Cassie Howard die in Euphoria: Season 3? Jun 01 $3 $0 +6%
Will Maddy Perez die in Euphoria: Season 3? Jun 01 $1 $0 +4%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in May? May 29 $8 $0 +2%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? May 29 $10 +$1 +6%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 29 $80 −$46 -58%
Over $60M committed to the Printr public sale? May 29 $4 $0 +1%
Will Wesley Hunt win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary? May 27 $2 $0 +7%
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30? May 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Joe Mazzulla win the 2025–2026 NBA Coach of the Year? May 27 $12 $0 +2%
Iran closes its airspace by May 24? May 27 $16 +$67 +411%
Will Trump say "250" or "250th" during events in Rockland County? May 27 $1 +$1 +61%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? May 24 $37 −$5 -13%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 83¢ $4 37m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 83¢ $5 37m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 84¢ $1 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 84¢ $1 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 75¢ $6 3h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 77¢ $2 3h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 77¢ $2 3h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 71¢ $5 3h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 72¢ $1 3h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 73¢ $4 3h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 73¢ $0 3h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 77¢ $5 3h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 76¢ $5 3h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 76¢ $5 3h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 76¢ $0 3h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 76¢ $0 3h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 76¢ $0 3h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 76¢ $0 3h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 76¢ $1 3h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 76¢ $1 3h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 76¢ $0 3h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 75¢ $0 3h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 75¢ $0 3h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 74¢ $0 3h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 75¢ $3 3h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 74¢ $1 3h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 73¢ $5 3h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 74¢ $3 3h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 72¢ $6 3h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 73¢ $6 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $251.87 · official $247.40 · 3500 history records