Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T11:39:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
7A 0x7ab8…8872 other 10 markets active 2h ago coverage 83d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$58 (-4%) realized −$37 · open −$21
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate75%3W / 1L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$142per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit50%portable
Net worth$1,044now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 83d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 67% −$75
crypto 21% −$3
sports 10% +$16
politics 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-16.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +23.6% +11.9% 100% 67% +11.9%
≤30d 4 -7.3% -16.1% 75% 50% -20.4%
≤90d 4 -7.3% -16.1% 75% 50% -20.4%
all 4 -7.3% -16.1% 75% 50% -20.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.1% 50% -20.4%
10% -24.1% 50% -28.0%
15% -31.5% 25% -34.9%
20% -38.2% 0% -41.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 72% · top 2 91% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% too few recent
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$19 vs −$100 · ×0.19 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.58 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

83d coverage
Net worth$1,044
Realized−$37
Unrealized−$21
Win rate (resolved)75%
Wins / losses3 / 1
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions6
Markets (closed)4 / 10
History coverage83d
Avg bet$142
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 4 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by June 30, 2026? No 95¢ 99¢ $500 $520 +$20 (+4%)
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-29? Yes 43¢ 42¢ $300 $296 −$3 (-1%)
Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by December 31, 2026? No 84¢ 72¢ $250 $213 −$37 (-15%)
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 83¢ 88¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+5%)
Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI? No 52¢ 50¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-3%)
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes 24¢ 21¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-15%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Heilbronn: Diego Dedura-Palomero vs Joao Lucas Da Silva Jun 29 $46 +$11 +24%
Makarska: Tena Lukas vs Darja Semenistaja Jun 29 $100 +$5 +5%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 29 $101 +$42 +42%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 04 $101 −$100 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 43¢ $305 2h
Heilbronn: Diego Dedura-Palomero vs Joao Lucas Da Silva BUY Diego Dedura-Palomero 80¢ $46 24d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY No 51¢ $101 24d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 70¢ $101 24d
Makarska: Tena Lukas vs Darja Semenistaja BUY Darja Semenistaja 95¢ $100 24d
Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by December 31, 2026? BUY No 84¢ $250 65d
Pedro Sánchez out as PM of Spain by June 30, 2026? BUY No 95¢ $500 65d
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 83¢ $5 82d
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 24¢ $5 82d
Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI? BUY No 52¢ $5 82d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,043.89 · official $1,043.89 (match) · 44 history records