Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T20:00:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
7A 0x7ab9…9448 crypto 189 markets active 2h ago coverage 32d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$19 (+1%) realized +$20 · open −$1
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate43%71W / 93L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$8per market
Trades / day6.8pace
Fees−$13est.
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$54now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$116
7 days+$176
14 days+$307
30 days+$179
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 46% +$64
crypto 35% −$58
other 17% +$92
world 1% +$2
politics 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-9.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 39 +9.6% -0.8% 46% 46% +26.1%
≤30d 146 +6.1% -4.0% 45% 45% +3.9%
≤90d 164 +0.2% -9.4% 43% 43% -2.9%
all 164 +0.2% -9.4% 43% 43% -2.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.4% 43% -2.9%
10% -18.0% 41% -12.2%
15% -26.0% 40% -20.7%
20% -33.2% 38% -28.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +7% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -28% → late +28% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$7 · ×1.51 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.15 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

32d coverage
Net worth$54
Realized+$20
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses71 / 93
Est. fees paid−$13
Open positions9
Markets (closed)164 / 189
History coverage32d
Avg bet$8
Trades / day6.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 164 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? Yes 25¢ 20¢ $40 $32 −$8 (-19%)
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 35¢ $1 $7 +$6 (+630%)
Will Czechia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 31¢ 74¢ $3 $7 +$4 (+140%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-16%)
Will Colombia win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 28¢ 50¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+79%)
Will Scottie Scheffler win the 2026 TOUR Championship? Yes 29¢ 16¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-47%)
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? No 11¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-23%)
Will Lamine Yamal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $1 $0 −$1 (-72%)
Will Min Woo Lee win the 2026 TOUR Championship? Yes 20¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-89%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 80 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Lionel Messi: 2+ goals Jun 22 $20 +$42 +206%
Argentina leading at halftime? Jun 22 $20 +$20 +97%
Exact Score: New Zealand 1 - 0 Egypt? Jun 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: Total Corners Odd or Even? Jun 22 $41 +$38 +93%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 Jun 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? Jun 22 $2 −$2 -94%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 21 $10 +$6 +62%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 21 $15 +$28 +180%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 21 $5 +$6 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 21 $10 −$10 -97%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? Jun 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Tunisia vs. Japan: Japan O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $30 +$31 +101%
Tunisia vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 21 $20 +$15 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 20 $5 −$5 -95%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $36 −$17 -46%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Germany O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 20 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 19 $10 +$3 +31%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? AND Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $10 +$17 +170%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -98%
England vs. Croatia: Total Corners Odd or Even? Jun 17 $30 −$30 -99%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 5.5 Corners Jun 17 $20 +$37 +181%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 17 $10 +$6 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 17 $10 +$11 +110%
Exact Score: Ghana 0 - 1 Panama? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -97%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? A Jun 17 $10 +$26 +250%
Lionel Messi: 1+ goals Jun 16 $5 $0 -3%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $10 +$8 +82%
Ousmane Dembélé: 1+ goals Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $3 +$7 +238%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $10 +$18 +172%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Total Corners Odd or Even? Jun 15 $10 +$9 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -96%
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Pedri: 1+ goals Jun 15 $3 −$3 -98%
Lamine Yamal: 1+ goals Jun 15 $20 −$8 -39%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 5.5 Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $1 +$6 +565%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $3 +$9 +296%
Will Justin Gaethje win by KO or TKO? Jun 15 $5 +$28 +550%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $2 +$7 +344%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $5 +$5 +105%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Lionel Messi: 2+ goals BUY Yes 32¢ $20 1h
Argentina leading at halftime? SELL Yes 100¢ $40 1h
Argentina leading at halftime? BUY Yes 50¢ $20 16h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? AND Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? AND BUY 17¢ $10 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $5 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $5 19h
Exact Score: New Zealand 1 - 0 Egypt? BUY Yes $2 19h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: Total Corners Odd or Even? BUY Odd 51¢ $41 19h
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $5 19h
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? SELL Yes $0 19h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 39¢ $10 20h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes $1 22h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 11¢ $2 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $10 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $5 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $10 29h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? BUY No $5 31h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Under 35¢ $15 31h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 AND Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 AND BUY 18¢ $10 31h
Tunisia vs. Japan: Japan O/U 2.5 BUY Over 49¢ $30 39h
Tunisia vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY No 56¢ $20 40h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Down 30¢ $5 45h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score SELL No 24¢ $19 47h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Germany O/U 2.5 BUY Over 37¢ $31 2d
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score BUY No 43¢ $36 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? AN BUY 34¢ $15 2d
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $5 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-1 BUY 16¢ $10 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $10 3d
Will Spain be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? BUY Yes 25¢ $41 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $54.12 · official $64.35 · 290 history records