Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T03:01:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7A 0x7ac3…d97f world 91 markets active 2d ago coverage 529d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$25 (-1%) realized −$25 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate27%24W / 65L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$33per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$16
30 days−$17
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 36% −$16
other 26% −$9
politics 23% $0
sports 9% $0
economics 4% $0
tech 1% $0
crypto 1% $0
weather 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-14.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -0.2% -9.7% 20% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 29 -2.5% -11.8% 14% 0% -11.1%
≤90d 69 -2.5% -11.8% 22% 0% -10.3%
all 89 -5.3% -14.3% 27% 1% -10.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.3% 1% -10.3%
10% -22.5% 1% -18.9%
15% -30.0% 1% -26.8%
20% -36.9% 1% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 45% · top 2 58% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
96% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.33 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.21 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

529d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$25
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)27%
Wins / losses24 / 65
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions2
Markets (closed)89 / 91
History coverage529d
Avg bet$33
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 89 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? No 72¢ 79¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+10%)
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? Yes 2¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-95%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? Jun 26 $3 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 25 $84 $0 -0%
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? Jun 24 $26 $0 -1%
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? Jun 23 $28 $0 -1%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 23 $26 $0 +1%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 20 $10 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 19 $95 −$2 -2%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Jun 18 $25 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? Jun 18 $9 $0 -4%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $29 $0 -1%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 18 $26 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $1 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 16 $47 $0 -0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 15 $69 −$1 -1%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 15 $63 −$11 -18%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 14 $18 −$2 -11%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 13 $38 $0 -1%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 11 $43 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $5 −$2 -36%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 10 $34 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 10 $10 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 09 $47 +$1 +2%
Iran Nuke before 2027? Jun 09 $40 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 08 $1 $0 +0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 07 $79 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 07 $44 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 06 $40 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 06 $43 $0 -0%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? Jun 05 $39 $0 +0%
Will Sweden win the televote for Eurovision 2026? May 11 $7 $0 -3%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by May 31, 2026? May 09 $45 $0 +0%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $81 $0 -0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 26 $131 $0 +0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 25 $41 $0 +0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 25 $13 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 25 $2 $0 +5%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 24 $68 $0 -0%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 23 $90 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 22 $2 $0 +2%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 21 $17 $0 -1%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Apr 21 $28 $0 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Apr 21 $90 $0 +0%
Will Richard Van De Water win The Bachelorette Season 22? Apr 19 $98 −$4 -4%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 18 $20 $0 -2%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 17 $18 $0 +1%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 16 $10 $0 +0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 16 $72 $0 -0%
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Apr 16 $44 $0 +0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 16 $7 $0 -2%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 16 $58 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL No 86¢ $3 45h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 92¢ $18 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 92¢ $4 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 92¢ $22 2d
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY No 86¢ $3 3d
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $6 3d
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $8 3d
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $11 3d
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? BUY No 95¢ $26 3d
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL No 90¢ $21 4d
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL No 90¢ $7 4d
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY No 91¢ $28 4d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $5 4d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $5 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 76¢ $26 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 75¢ $26 5d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $28 6d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $28 7d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $28 7d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $28 7d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 17¢ $2 7d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 17¢ $8 7d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 17¢ $3 8d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 17¢ $7 8d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 48¢ $28 8d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 48¢ $28 8d
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? SELL No 94¢ $25 9d
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? BUY No 94¢ $25 9d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL Yes 26¢ $3 9d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL Yes 26¢ $6 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.31 · official $0.00 (match) · 352 history records