Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T15:45:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
7A 0x7ac3…0a75 other 10 markets active 21h ago coverage 9d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$10 (-28%) realized −$11 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate33%3W / 6L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day1.1pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit20%portable
Net worth$10now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$6
7 days−$11
14 days−$11
30 days−$11
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 94% −$10
sports 6% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-23.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -15.6% -23.6% 33% 33% -48.2%
≤30d 9 -15.6% -23.6% 33% 33% -48.2%
≤90d 9 -15.6% -23.6% 33% 33% -48.2%
all 9 -15.6% -23.6% 33% 33% -48.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -23.6% 33% -48.2%
10% -30.9% 33% -53.2%
15% -37.6% 33% -57.7%
20% -43.7% 33% -61.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 78% · top 2 94% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -43% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -16% · $-wt -43% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$3 · ×0.93 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.47 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

9d coverage
Net worth$10
Realized−$11
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses3 / 6
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)9 / 10
History coverage9d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day1.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit20%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 9 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 11¢ $9 $10 +$1 (+6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $11 −$11 -99%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $3 +$8 +246%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $1 +$2 +156%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics Jun 11 $1 −$1 -97%
Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 11 $1 +$1 +58%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 10 $2 −$2 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 66¢ $3 21h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 93¢ $11 26h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 28¢ $3 40h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $3 2d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 24¢ $1 3d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 38¢ $1 4d
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics BUY Milwaukee Brewers 26¢ $1 5d
Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays BUY Tampa Bay Rays 62¢ $1 5d
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 11¢ $2 5d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $9 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $9.58 · official $9.58 (match) · 13 history records