Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T01:35:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
7A 0x7ac7…3ef9 sports 61 markets active 2h ago coverage 50d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$17 (+0%) realized −$151 · open +$168
Gross ROI / mkt -21% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate33%20W / 40L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$161per market
Trades / day1.8pace
Fees−$195est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$245now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$99
7 days+$78
14 days+$78
30 days−$137
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 94% +$106
other 4% +$124
crypto 2% −$133
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-28.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 25 -26.5% -33.5% 32% 32% -7.2%
≤30d 34 -18.7% -26.5% 35% 35% -12.3%
≤90d 60 -21.3% -28.8% 33% 33% -10.2%
all 60 -21.3% -28.8% 33% 33% -10.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -28.8% 33% -10.2%
10% -35.6% 33% -18.8%
15% -41.9% 30% -26.6%
20% -47.6% 30% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 36% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -21% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -19% → late -24% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$264 vs −$134 · ×1.97 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.99 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

50d coverage
Net worth$245
Realized−$151
Unrealized+$168
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses20 / 40
Est. fees paid−$195
Open positions1
Markets (closed)60 / 61
History coverage50d
Avg bet$161
Trades / day1.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 60 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Washington Mystics vs. New York Liberty Washington Mystics 16¢ 52¢ $77 $245 +$168 (+220%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 36 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Atlanta Dream vs. Indiana Fever Jun 19 $101 −$99 -99%
New York Liberty vs. Chicago Sky Jun 18 $110 −$107 -98%
Toronto Tempo vs. Indiana Fever: O/U 180.5 Jun 17 $398 −$389 -98%
Toronto Tempo vs. Indiana Fever: O/U 178.5 Jun 16 $199 −$196 -98%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group S Jun 16 $220 −$20 -9%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play Jun 16 $174 +$46 +26%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 16 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 16 $51 −$50 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 16 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 16 $5 +$1 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 16 $8 −$8 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 16 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 16 $26 +$15 +58%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -95%
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Golden State Valkyries Jun 16 $216 −$212 -98%
Las Vegas Aces vs. Dallas Wings: O/U 176.5 Jun 16 $281 +$281 +100%
Las Vegas Aces vs. Dallas Wings Jun 16 $186 +$95 +51%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $137 −$133 -97%
Washington Mystics vs. New York Liberty Jun 14 $119 −$116 -98%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $204 +$298 +146%
Minnesota Lynx vs. Las Vegas Aces Jun 14 $39 −$32 -82%
Haiti to score first vs. Scotland? Jun 14 $51 −$50 -98%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $142 +$588 +414%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $245 +$257 +105%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 29 $68 −$67 -98%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 24 $511 −$502 -98%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers May 24 $387 +$308 +79%
Portland Fire vs. Toronto Tempo May 23 $99 +$161 +162%
Counter-Strike: ASTRAL vs MASONIC - Map 2 Winner May 23 $21 −$21 -98%
Golden State Valkyries vs. Indiana Fever May 22 $193 −$190 -98%
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Phoenix Mercury May 22 $70 +$65 +93%
Golden State Valkyries vs. New York Liberty May 22 $55 +$106 +194%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks May 21 $75 −$74 -98%
Spurs vs. Timberwolves: O/U 225.5 May 16 $86 −$83 -97%
Spurs vs. Timberwolves: O/U 216.5 May 16 $51 −$50 -98%
Pistons vs. Cavaliers: O/U 209.5 May 15 $138 −$136 -98%
Valorant: G2 Esports vs 100 Thieves (BO3) - VCT Americas Stage 1 Playo May 15 $15 −$15 -97%
LoL: Conviction vs Dorado Gaming (BO3) - North American Challengers Le May 15 $18 −$17 -97%
Valorant: Fnatic vs Team Heretics (BO3) - VCT EMEA Playoffs May 10 $1 −$1 -98%
Lakers vs. Thunder May 07 $199 −$194 -98%
Counter-Strike: Isurus vs R2 Esports Club (BO3) - CCT South America Se May 06 $56 −$55 -98%
Timberwolves vs. Spurs May 06 $299 −$292 -98%
76ers vs. Knicks May 06 $102 −$100 -98%
Timberwolves vs. Spurs May 05 $183 +$481 +263%
76ers vs. Knicks May 04 $185 −$181 -98%
Lakers vs. Thunder May 04 $471 −$458 -97%
Counter-Strike: Voca vs Wildcard (BO3) - ESL Challenger League North A May 04 $375 −$370 -99%
Raptors vs. Cavaliers May 03 $777 −$570 -73%
76ers vs. Celtics May 03 $756 +$1,306 +173%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Washington Mystics vs. New York Liberty BUY Washington Mystics 16¢ $78 1h
Atlanta Dream vs. Indiana Fever BUY Indiana Fever 51¢ $101 25h
New York Liberty vs. Chicago Sky BUY Chicago Sky 25¢ $110 2d
Toronto Tempo vs. Indiana Fever: O/U 180.5 BUY Under 23¢ $398 3d
Toronto Tempo vs. Indiana Fever: O/U 178.5 BUY Under 47¢ $199 3d
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group S SELL GenOne 64¢ $199 3d
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs GenOne (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group S BUY GenOne 69¢ $220 3d
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play SELL Team Vitality 92¢ $220 3d
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play BUY Team Vitality 72¢ $174 3d
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $26 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Up 71¢ $26 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET BUY Up 56¢ $26 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Up 37¢ $26 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET SELL Up 71¢ $7 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Up 26¢ $8 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $26 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET SELL Up 96¢ $41 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 59¢ $26 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Up 26¢ $5 3d
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Golden State Valkyries BUY Los Angeles Sparks 37¢ $216 3d
Las Vegas Aces vs. Dallas Wings: O/U 176.5 SELL Under 99¢ $562 3d
Las Vegas Aces vs. Dallas Wings: O/U 176.5 BUY Under 49¢ $281 4d
Las Vegas Aces vs. Dallas Wings SELL Dallas Wings 86¢ $281 4d
Las Vegas Aces vs. Dallas Wings BUY Dallas Wings 56¢ $186 4d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes $137 4d
Washington Mystics vs. New York Liberty BUY Washington Mystics 16¢ $119 5d
Knicks vs. Spurs SELL Knicks 93¢ $502 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $244.70 · official $240.00 · 92 history records