Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T20:36:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
7A 0x7ac8…77cd politics 182 markets active 1h ago coverage 57d ⚠
BOTnot copyable politics specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 56d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (58 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)
Total PnL +$126,073 (+126%) realized +$121,900 · open +$4,173
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +253% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +172% what you keep after slip
Net edge+172%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate53%54W / 47L
Whale WR78%big bets
Drawdown11%max
Avg bet$550per market
Trades / day57.8pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$74,748now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 57d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 81% +$14,276
other 18% +$1,595
world 1% +$3,825
economics 0% −$72
tech 0% +$47
sports 0% −$12
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (58 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)+219.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 44 +336.8% +295.2% 45% 41% +77.6%
≤30d 79 +241.6% +209.1% 53% 44% +21.8%
≤90d 101 +252.6% +219.1% 53% 47% +21.6%
all 101 +252.6% +219.1% 53% 47% +21.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover57.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +219.1% 47% +21.6%
10% ← realistic here +188.5% 38% +10.0%
15% +160.6% 36% -0.6%
20% +135.1% 31% -10.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +43% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
13% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +253% · $-wt +43% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 78% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +207% → late +298% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
9.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$493 vs −$156 · ×3.15 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.62 per $1 lost it wins $3.62
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

57d coverage
Net worth$74,748
Realized+$121,900
Unrealized+$4,173
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses54 / 47
Whale WR (big bets)78%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions263
Markets (closed)101 / 182
History coverage57d ⚠
Avg bet$550
Trades / day57.8
Drawdown11%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 263 History 101 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Tyler Kistner be the Republican Nominee for MN-02? No 88¢ 96¢ $4,627 $5,044 +$417 (+9%)
Will Laurent Wauquiez be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election? No 91¢ 94¢ $4,377 $4,524 +$147 (+3%)
Will Alex Bores win the NY-12 Democratic Primary by less than 5%? No 71¢ 74¢ $3,127 $3,267 +$141 (+4%)
Will Alabama use a new congressional map for the 2026 United States midterm elections? Yes 80¢ 86¢ $2,302 $2,473 +$171 (+7%)
Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Yes 60¢ 60¢ $2,172 $2,168 −$4 (-0%)
Will Allen Waters be the Republican nominee for Senate in Rhode Island? No 91¢ 98¢ $1,888 $2,033 +$145 (+8%)
Will the Republicans win the New York governor race in 2026? No 67¢ 88¢ $1,535 $2,022 +$487 (+32%)
Will Nancy Dahlstrom win the 2026 Alaska governor election? No 90¢ 99¢ $1,613 $1,775 +$161 (+10%)
Will Matt Claman advance from the 2026 Alaska Governor primary election? No 72¢ 66¢ $1,905 $1,741 −$164 (-9%)
Will Indiana use a new congressional map for the 2026 United States midterm elections? No 90¢ 94¢ $1,659 $1,727 +$68 (+4%)
Will the Democratic Party win the AL-03 House seat? No 90¢ 94¢ $1,470 $1,519 +$49 (+3%)
Will the Republican Party hold exactly 26 or 27 governorships after the 2026 midterm elections? No 59¢ 82¢ $1,041 $1,465 +$423 (+41%)
Will Tim Cyr win the 2026 Tennessee Governor Democratic primary election? No 74¢ 99¢ $1,031 $1,375 +$344 (+33%)
Will Jerri Green win the 2026 Tennessee Governor Democratic primary election? Yes 58¢ 84¢ $894 $1,309 +$415 (+46%)
Will Karrin Taylor Robson win the 2026 Arizona Governor Republican primary election? No 93¢ 99¢ $1,187 $1,269 +$82 (+7%)
Will Josh Elliott win the 2026 Connecticut Governor Democratic primary election? No 81¢ 94¢ $982 $1,138 +$157 (+16%)
Will Édouard Philippe win the 2027 French presidential election? Yes 15¢ 20¢ $895 $1,134 +$239 (+27%)
Will Therese Terlaje win the 2026 Guam Governor Democratic primary election? Yes 63¢ 72¢ $978 $1,126 +$148 (+15%)
Will Mike Pieciak win the 2026 Vermont Governor Democratic primary election? No 95¢ 97¢ $1,064 $1,082 +$18 (+2%)
Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden? Yes 57¢ 74¢ $770 $985 +$215 (+28%)
Will the Democratic Party win the IL-07 House seat? Yes 92¢ 94¢ $905 $917 +$12 (+1%)
Will the Democrats win the New York governor race in 2026? Yes 82¢ 88¢ $818 $872 +$54 (+7%)
Will Chris Coons be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Delaware? Yes 78¢ 96¢ $694 $855 +$161 (+23%)
Will the Republican Party win the NV-02 House seat? Yes 80¢ 73¢ $897 $823 −$74 (-8%)
Will the Democratic Party win the IL-10 House seat? Yes 92¢ 94¢ $811 $822 +$11 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 49 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Graham Platner be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Maine? Jun 17 $32 +$707 +2181%
Will Wesley Hunt win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary? Jun 17 $77 +$1,507 +1954%
Will Chris Dudley win the 2026 Oregon Governor Republican primary elec Jun 17 $47 −$47 -100%
Will Adam Steen win the 2026 Iowa Governor Republican primary election Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Zach Wahls be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Iowa? Jun 17 $10 −$5 -49%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Gregor Heise be the Republican Nominee for TX-30? Jun 17 $45 −$45 -100%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Juliette Chesnel-Leroux win the 2026 Nice mayoral election? Jun 17 $4 +$1,595 +36234%
Will Matjaž Han be the next Prime Minister of Slovenia? Jun 17 $2 $0 -15%
Will Shelley Moore Capito be the Republican nominee for Senate in West Jun 17 $0 +$9 +3671%
Will Janet Mills be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Maine? Jun 17 $3 +$346 +10536%
Will Jean-Paul Lecoq be the next mayor of Le Havre? Jun 17 $247 −$273 -110%
Will no listed leader be out before 2027? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will Brest be relegated from Ligue 1 after the 2025–26 season? Jun 17 $5 $0 -3%
Will Amy McGrath be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Kentucky? Jun 17 $168 −$168 -100%
Will Elon Musk be richest person on March 31? Jun 17 $4 −$5 -125%
Will José Williams finish in fourth place in the first round of the 20 Jun 17 $121 −$164 -136%
Will Mark Lynch be the Republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will John Cornyn win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary? Jun 17 $71 −$149 -210%
Will Lionel Messi play in the World Cup? Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Mike Johnson out as Speaker by March 31? Jun 17 $47 +$23 +50%
Will a hurricane form by May 31? Jun 17 $6 +$24 +416%
Will Paloma Valencia win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian president Jun 17 $0 $0 -100%
Will Mason Greenwood be the top goal scorer in the 2025-26 Ligue 1 sea Jun 17 $13 −$13 -100%
Will Julie Johnson be the Democratic nominee for TX-33? Jun 17 $28 −$28 -100%
Will Sherrod Brown be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Ohio? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Jean-Michel Aulas win the 2026 Lyon mayoral election? Jun 17 $25 +$666 +2616%
Elon Musk trillionaire before 2027? Jun 17 $180 −$180 -100%
Will Randy Feenstra win the 2026 Iowa Governor Republican primary elec Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
Will AKEL win the most seats at the Cyprus House of Representatives el Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Ed Hale win the 2026 Maryland Governor Republican primary electio Jun 17 $68 +$142 +209%
Will Dan Cox win the 2026 Maryland Governor Republican primary electio Jun 17 $46 +$47 +101%
Will the JNE certify results of the second round of the 2026 Peruvian Jun 17 $72 +$8 +11%
Will Adrian Boafo be the Democratic nominee for MD-05? Jun 17 $346 −$8 -2%
Will Brad Raffensperger win the 2026 Georgia Governor Republican prima Jun 17 $30 +$1,177 +3909%
Will Arya Azma win the 2026 Oklahoma Governor Democratic primary elect Jun 17 $97 +$2,133 +2201%
Will Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremo Jun 17 $34 +$6 +18%
Will Jared Kushner attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? Jun 17 $68 +$4 +6%
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 19? Jun 16 $87 +$1 +1%
Will Rebecca Shepherd finish second in the 2026 Makerfield by-election Jun 15 $352 +$37 +11%
Will Željka Cvijanović be the Serb Presidency Member of Bosnia and Her Jun 14 $2,670 +$300 +11%
Will the Democrats win the Iowa governor race in 2026? Jun 14 $166 +$21 +12%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? Jun 12 $53 +$47 +89%
Will Barry Moore be the Republican nominee for Senate in Alabama? Jun 10 $639 +$149 +23%
Will Mario Almici win the 2026 Legnano mayoral election? Jun 08 $58 +$23 +39%
Will Luca Pozzobon win the 2026 Castelfranco Veneto mayoral election? Jun 08 $309 +$363 +117%
Will Maria Wanjera Ghimenton win the 2026 Castelfranco Veneto mayoral Jun 08 $463 +$566 +122%
Will Ferdinando Federico win the 2026 Ottaviano mayoral election? Jun 08 $5,386 +$532 +10%
Will Biagio Simonetti win the 2026 Ottaviano mayoral election? Jun 08 $1,379 +$90 +6%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Laurent Wauquiez be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidentia BUY No 94¢ $17 40m
Will Laurent Wauquiez be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidentia BUY No 92¢ $970 40m
Will Laurent Wauquiez be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidentia BUY No 94¢ $281 45m
Will Laurent Wauquiez be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidentia BUY No 95¢ $95 45m
Will Laurent Wauquiez be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidentia BUY No 96¢ $39 49m
Will Laurent Wauquiez be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidentia BUY No 96¢ $96 55m
Will Ed Hale win the 2026 Maryland Governor Republican primary electio SELL Yes 27¢ $30 1h
Will Dan Cox win the 2026 Maryland Governor Republican primary electio SELL No 27¢ $34 1h
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL Yes 24¢ $7 5h
Will Alex Bores win the NY-12 Democratic Primary by less than 5%? SELL No 76¢ $1 7h
Will Alex Bores win the NY-12 Democratic Primary by less than 5%? BUY No 73¢ $1 7h
Will Alex Bores win the NY-12 Democratic Primary by less than 5%? BUY No 73¢ $0 7h
Will Alex Bores win the NY-12 Democratic Primary by less than 5%? BUY No 73¢ $4 7h
Will Alex Bores win the NY-12 Democratic Primary by less than 5%? BUY No 73¢ $4 7h
Will Alex Bores win the NY-12 Democratic Primary by less than 5%? SELL No 76¢ $1 7h
Will Alex Bores win the NY-12 Democratic Primary by less than 5%? BUY No 73¢ $4 7h
Will Alex Bores win the NY-12 Democratic Primary by less than 5%? BUY No 73¢ $4 7h
Will Alex Bores win the NY-12 Democratic Primary by less than 5%? BUY No 73¢ $4 7h
Will Alex Bores win the NY-12 Democratic Primary by less than 5%? BUY No 73¢ $0 7h
Will Alex Bores win the NY-12 Democratic Primary by less than 5%? BUY No 73¢ $0 7h
Will Alex Bores win the NY-12 Democratic Primary by less than 5%? BUY No 73¢ $4 7h
Will Alex Bores win the NY-12 Democratic Primary by less than 5%? BUY No 73¢ $4 7h
Will Alex Bores win the NY-12 Democratic Primary by less than 5%? BUY No 73¢ $0 7h
Will Alex Bores win the NY-12 Democratic Primary by less than 5%? BUY No 73¢ $0 7h
Will Alex Bores win the NY-12 Democratic Primary by less than 5%? BUY No 73¢ $0 7h
Will Alex Bores win the NY-12 Democratic Primary by less than 5%? SELL No 76¢ $1 7h
Will Alex Bores win the NY-12 Democratic Primary by less than 5%? BUY No 73¢ $4 7h
Will Alex Bores win the NY-12 Democratic Primary by less than 5%? BUY No 73¢ $4 7h
Will Alex Bores win the NY-12 Democratic Primary by less than 5%? BUY No 73¢ $0 7h
Will Alex Bores win the NY-12 Democratic Primary by less than 5%? BUY No 73¢ $0 7h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $74,748.50 · official $74,748.08 (match) · 3500 history records