Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T16:48:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
7A 0x7ac8…1b4d weather 16 markets active 2h ago coverage 183d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$1 (+0%) realized +$1 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate100%14W / 0L
Drawdown0%max
Avg bet$28per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$168now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 55% +$1
crypto 38% $0
other 4% $0
culture 3% $0
politics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d 5 +0.3% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.2%
all 14 +0.3% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.3% 0% -9.3%
10% -17.9% 0% -18.0%
15% -25.9% 0% -25.9%
20% -33.1% 0% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 43% · top 2 57% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs — no data
Profit factor
— no data
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

183d coverage
Net worth$168
Realized+$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)100%
Wins / losses14 / 0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)14 / 16
History coverage183d
Avg bet$28
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown0%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 14 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 27°C on June 30? No 100¢ 100¢ $32 $32 −$0 (-0%)
Will Ethereum reach $10,000 by December 31, 2026? No 97¢ 98¢ $9 $9 +$0 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 33°C on May 26? May 25 $67 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 22°C or below on April 22? Apr 21 $25 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 24°C or below on April 8? Apr 07 $31 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 20°C on April 2? Apr 01 $34 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,800 in March? Apr 01 $13 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 7°C on March 24? Mar 24 $29 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be 63°F or below on March 18? Mar 18 $30 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from February 27 to March 6, 2026? Mar 06 $16 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on February 28? Mar 01 $1 $0 +0%
Will Billie Eilish have the greatest number of monthly Spotify listene Mar 01 $13 $0 +1%
Will Partido Popular (PP) win the 2026 Aragon Regional Election? Feb 22 $3 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in January? Feb 07 $15 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2025? Jan 16 $1 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $400 before 2026? Jan 16 $136 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $167.60 · official $167.60 (match) · 27 history records